Harness Analysis
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James Under 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists | — | T2 | — | T2 | T3 | Win |
| Vidal Bruján Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | — | T3 | — | T2 | Win |
| Matthew Liberatore Over 1.5 Pitcher Walks Allowed | — | T3 | T2 | T2 | T1 | Win |
Final Decision
All 4 harnesses independently recommended SKIP. No candidate cleared the survival-first threshold: LeBron had superstar usage risk and a 3/10 recent rate, Bruján was a Coors total-bases under with thin edge, and Liberatore had role/innings dependency that couldn't be confirmed pre-game.
No official bet placed; Martingale ladder unchanged. Board went 3-0: LeBron 31 PRA (win), Bruján 0 TB (win), Liberatore 3 BB over 6.0 IP (win). Opportunity-cost PASS, but correct discipline under survival-first rules.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 62.1%
- BE
- 54.1%
- DTM
- 17.6%
- Recent
- L10 3/10
- Rithmm
- 60.5%
- BE
- 58.7%
- DTM
- 4.5%
- Recent
- —
- Rithmm
- 60.9%
- BE
- 58%
- DTM
- 6.9%
- Recent
- L7 5/7
Harness Notes
Official PASS preserved the Martingale sequence. Board went 3-0 — all candidates won — but no official bet was placed. PASS remains correct discipline under survival-first rules.
SKIP correct officially. Paper lean was LeBron U35.5 PRA, which won with 31 PRA. Bruján was rejected (Coors/one-swing) and Liberatore downgraded to T3 due to walk-prop volatility.
SKIP correct officially. Conditional paper lean was Liberatore O1.5 BB pending start confirmation; he pitched 6.0 IP with 3 BB, so the paper lean won. LeBron was hard-rejected due to 3/10 recent form.
SKIP correct officially. Paper lean was LeBron U35.5 PRA, which won with 31 PRA. Gemini's Coors one-swing rejection of Bruján was also directionally correct (0 TB, but the risk profile was real).
SKIP correct officially. Paper lean was Liberatore O1.5 BB (T1 rating), which won with 3 walks over 6.0 IP. Perplexity was the only harness to rate Liberatore Tier 1 and Bruján Tier 2 (inverse of most).