Harness Analysis
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ausar Thompson Under 3.5 Blocks + Steals | — | T2 | T2 | T3 | — | Win |
| Brewers Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T1 | T1 | T1 | T1 | Win |
| Braves Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T2 | T2 | T2 | T2 | Win |
| Pete Alonso Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — | Win |
| Edward Cabrera Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Loss |
Final Decision
C2 is the unanimous all-Tier-1 candidate, but the harness split was 2 BET / 2 PASS with confidence clustered around 61–65% against a 59.8% break-even. A barely-positive edge on an MLB run line is a good paper-watch profile, not a clean Martingale recovery anchor.
No official bet placed; Martingale ladder unchanged. Board went 4-1: C5 Cabrera finished with 6 Ks (over 5.5, loss). Paper lean C2 Brewers +1.5 won outright 4-3. PASS was a defensible opportunity-cost call.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 65.6%
- BE
- 62%
- DTM
- 9.1%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
- Rithmm
- 65.6%
- BE
- 59.8%
- DTM
- 14.2%
- Recent
- L10 7/10
- Rithmm
- 61.4%
- BE
- 58.5%
- DTM
- 7%
- Recent
- L10 7/10
- Rithmm
- 60.6%
- BE
- 58.5%
- DTM
- 5%
- Recent
- L10 3/10
- Rithmm
- 60.6%
- BE
- 58%
- DTM
- 6.2%
- Recent
- L7 5/7
Harness Notes
Official PASS. No Martingale exposure; ladder unchanged. Board went 4-1 with C5 Cabrera as the only loss. PASS was defensible given the 2-BET/2-PASS harness split at a barely-positive edge.
PASS had opportunity cost; paper lean C2 Brewers +1.5 won outright 4-3. Survival-threshold caution avoided exposure but missed the best board result.
Correct forced-action call. Brewers won 4-3 outright; run-line cushion was never needed. Model alignment (Brewers projected to win outright) was the key structural support.
Correct forced-action call. +1.5 macro market beat fragile props; Brewers won outright 4-3. Gemini's 14.2% DTM emphasis and model-projection-to-cushion framing was validated.
PASS had opportunity cost; paper lean C2 Brewers +1.5 won. Same split-threshold caution as ChatGPT — survival-first discipline preserved but opportunity cost on the run-line winner.