Expert Picks

DraftKings. I’m hopping back on Oso Ighodaro’s points line, after cashing in on the big man on Friday, despite some intense second half foul trouble. Ighodaro assumes a huge role in the Suns front court with Mark Williams sidelined - and he’s now cleared this line in three straight games. He gets a Hornets squad that’s bottom ten in points allowed in the restricted area, and allows the fourth most assists at the rim. I’d bet this at over 9.5 at +100 or better (to win one unit).

FanDuel. I’ll play with fire and take a flier on Kyle Filipowski to clear his points prop for the tanking Jazz. The big man is over this line in 10 of the last 13 games. He’ll face a thin Warriors front court that will be without Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis tonight. I’d bet this up to over 13.5 for a partial unit.

DraftKings. Landry Shamet continues to play a vital role for the Knicks off the bench. The wing has cleared this line in 18/25 games he’s played between 18-30 minutes this season - the 18 minute floor is a mark he’s cleared in each of his last 19 games. The matchup against the Clippers should be good for his shot profile, as LA ranks below average both against spot up opportunities and pull-up jump shots.

FanDuel. Onyeka Okongwu has cleared this rebounds line in 16/20 games against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in rebounds allowed, when he plays at least 26 minutes. He should be in line for his normal workload tonight against the Mavericks, who allow the fourth most boards per game.

FanDuel. This is a very solid developmental spot for Kasparas Jakucionis. The Heat will be without Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins and Norman Powell on the wing, and I expect the Heat rookie to absorb some of that usage.

FanDuel. This is a bet on Baylor Scheierman’s role tonight. The second year wing should be poised for significant minutes off the bench, as Boston will be without Payton Pritchard and Nikola Vucevic, and Jayson Tatum is likely still caped at around 30 minutes. Scheierman has cleared this line in 12 of his last 14 games, and in 14/17 with at least 24 minutes this season.

DraftKings. This is an excellent spot for Maxime Raynaud, who has cleared this line in seven of his last eleven games. The Pacers rank dead last against pick and roll men this season, and allow the second most paint points. Look for the promising rookie to make it 8/12 on this line.

DraftKings. Anthony Edwards has cleared this line in 33/52 full games this season (64%). Narrow that down against teams in the bottom half of the NBA defending isolation, and Edwards success rate shoots up to 70% (18/26). The Lakers rank 27th against the playtype, and have struggled defensively against primary scorers all season. Plus, it just feels right backing Edwards in LA, on national TV.

FanDuel. RJ Barrett is averaging 5.4 rebounds in 30 minutes per game this season, but his minutes have been trending upward of late. Barrett’s rotation has him between 32-34 minutes right now, and he’s seen a slight bump to his counting stats because of it. This should serve as a fantastic matchup for him to crash the boards, as New Orleans allow the fourth most boards per game. Barrett has cleared this line in 15/21 games against teams in the bottom half of the NBA of rebounds allowed.

FanDuel. Nique Clifford should function as the primary ball handler for the Kings tonight. Sacramento will be without Russell Westbrook, Malik Monk and Devin Carter, which leaves Clifford in a facilitating role. In the last two games just without Westbrook, Clifford totaled six and seven assists, with 21 combined potentials. It’s not the most ideal opponent, as the Hornets are stingy, but Clifford should see 34+ minutes with a very strong floor.

DraftKings. Averaging 22.3 points plus rebounds this season, I like this spot for Jabari Smith Jr. The Rockets forward has cleared this line in 37/60 games (62%), including 16/23 (70%) against teams in the bottom 12 of defense against spot up opportunities (Denver is 26th). Smith has posted at least 26 P+R in each of his three meetings against the Nuggets this season, as he benefits as a scorer in secondary situations, and as a rebounder playing off of the Nikola Jokic/Jamal Murray pick and roll action.

DraftKings. I like this spot for Darius Garland, who is averaging 26.5 points plus assists per 30 minutes across his first four games as a Clipper. Garland should thrive against a Timberwolves team that plays the pick and roll straight up, allowing ball handlers to score at the highest rate in the NBA. Garland, who has been built up to 30 minutes, thrived in this matchup as a Cavalier, clearing this line in both games with a fully healthy roster. I like the newest Clipper to clear this line for the this straight game tonight.

DraftKings. With most of his season marred by hamstring injuries, Jalen Green seems to finally be rounding into form. Green has 24+ points in three straight games, while garnering significant shot volume opposite Devin Booker. With Dillon Brooks sidelined, and playing a Pacers defense that does not help off the ball, Green should find ample opportunity tonight. The Pacers allow the highest effective field goal percentage to pull up jump shooters, and the sixth highest points per possession to pick and roll ball handlers. Green can be inefficient, but this is a plus matchup to alleviate those concerns.

Caesar’s at -102. Let’s try this again with Kasparas Jakucionis. No Andrew Wiggins, Norman Powell, or Tyler Herro tonight, and we can expect a much, much more passive Bam Adebayo. This is a strong matchup for the rookie’s skillset, as the Bucks are 28th against spot up shooters.

FanDuel. Going to take a flier on Jonathan Kuminga, who is making his return to the hawks lineup after an 11-day absence. He should be in line for 24 minutes, which is enough runway for him to clear this line. The Nets defense is a rim and transition funnel, which suits Kuminga perfectly.

FanDuel. Ajay Mitchell made his return to the Thunder lineup after a prolonged injury absence, and surprisingly played 29 minutes. Scoring 24 points, he picked up right where he left off pre-injury, as a scoring force off the bench. The Celtics, who rank 25th against pick and roll ball handlers, are an excellent opponent for Mitchell schematically. The second year pro has cleared this line in 16/20 games he’s played with Shai Gilgeous Alexander, against teams in the bottom half of pick and roll ball-handler defense.

DraftKings. Cooper Flagg has failed to clear this points line in each of the five games since returning from a foot injury that sidelined him for three weeks. Despite a stellar rookie season overall, Flagg has remained under this line in 17/26 games he’s played alongside Naji Marshall and PJ Washington, but without Anthony Davis, serving more as a facilitator in the Mavs wing heavy lineups. It’s a tough matchup on a back to back against the stingy pick and roll defense of the Cavs. Flagg likely draws Dean Wade at the point of attack, with Evan Mobley helping on the back-end.

DraftKings. Coming off a 27-point performance in Utah, I’m backing Jordan Clarkson to clear his points line tonight. The Knicks will be without Karl Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, which should thrust Clarkson into the rotation. The Pacers defensive philosophy is to make you beat them one-on-one, and outside of Jalen Brunson, it’s Clarkson whose skillset should play best tonight.

DraftKings. Dejounte Murray has cleared this line in each of his last five games, as he continues to round into form post Achilles injury. Built up to 30 minutes, Murray has incurred a 25%+ usage rate in each of the last five games, as he provides the Pelicans with consistent shot-making from the perimeter. The matchup is ideal schematically, as the Rockets do not help off of spot up shooters, and make ball-handlers/pull-up shooters beat them in the half court. I’d also bet this at over 16.5 points, but given Murray’s prowess on the boards, I’m tacking on rebounds to the combo line.

DraftKings. With Robert Williams ruled out, Donovan Clingan’s minutes floor is secured, and this becomes a smash spot against the depleted Jazz frontcourt. Utah ranks in the bottom six defending both pick and roll-men and putbacks, and allow the fifth most rebounds to centers over the last 30 games. Good to over 27.5.

DraftKings. De’Aaron Fox has been rolling, with 19+ points in each of his last five games. Playing some of his best ball of the season, I’m jumping on this line before we know Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper’s availability today (both are questionable). This is an excellent matchup for Fox’s skillset as the Hornets rank 27th against pick and roll ball handlers and 20th against pull-up jump shooters.

FanDuel. Tristan da Silva has cleared this line in seven of the last nine games. His role has increased as the Magic have been without both Franz Wagner and Anthony Black. I expect that to continue Saturday in a paced up spot against the Heat. Miami plays at the league’s highest tempo, and by virtue, allow above average counting stats in most categories. Coming off a 27 and 33 P+R performance, I love this spot for da Silva to continue to produce.

FanDuel. Demar DeRozan is under this line in 13 of his last 14 games. The one miss, however, is the cause of the spike of this line, as DDR went for 49 PRA in the Kings last game against Charlotte. Now facing a hot Clippers team, I’m counting on a more muted performance, especially with Russell Westbrook back. The Clippers play at the fifth slowest pace, and are very stingy with the peripheral stats. The likes of Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn, and even Kawhi Leonard will contribute to what should be a tough matchup for DeRozan. And like we’ve seen many a time with the floundering Kings, Derozan’s minutes can completely fall off in the second half.

DraftKings. Julius Randle is under this line in 11 of his last 12 games. His jump shot is broken, shooting 15% from beyond the arc since the all star break. That does not bode well against the Thunder who wall off the paint and make you shoot from the outside. The Timberwolves have also been opting for smaller lineups, which has capped Randle’s minutes of late.

Caesar’s. Jalen Duren gets a smash spot against a Raptors frontcourt that’s 26th against roll-men in the pick and roll. Duren has cleared this line in 12 of the last 16 full games he’s played, and in 6/7 without Isaiah Stewart available.

FanDuel. Justin Edwards has traditionally produced for the 76ers when given the opportunity. Now that Philadelphia is without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Kelly Oubre - Edwards is not only in the rotation, but thrust into a significant role. Playing 29 and 31 minutes the last two games, Edwards should see 26+ minutes of action tonight. He should be able to get out in transition against the Trailblazers, who rank 28th defensively in that department.

DraftKings. Going to try to get ahead of some injury news on this one. Russell Westbrook (37 minutes last night) has sat out the second leg of the last two back to backs for the Kings. Without Westbrook, Nique Clifford assumes primary ball-handing duties for Sacramento, with 6+ assists in each of the last three games without Westbrook. Even if Westbrook does suit up, this is a perfect spot against the Jazz who allow the NBA’s most assists.

DraftKings. Kristaps Porzingis will make his fourth appearance for the Warriors tonight. The big man has struggled with illnesses this season, and the Warriors have been slowly ramping him up, which likely caps him around 24 minutes today. But that should be all he needs against the Wizards front line. Washington is allowing the most points over the last 30 games to opposing centers, even if you remove Bam Adebayo’s extreme outlier 83-point performance. Porzingis has been the focal point of the Warriors offense when he is in, with 29 FGA and 9 FTA over 42 minutes the last two games (37 total points). It’s a perfect matchup to continue to keep building him up tonight.

Caesar’s at -127. The books still seem to be undervaluing Tristan da Silva in his current role with the Magic. The second year pro is over this line in eight of his last ten games, and five of six this season without both Franz Wagner and Anthony Black who will remain out on Monday. The game against Atlanta should be uptempo, as the Hawks run at the second fastest pace. da Silva registered 21 and 24 points plus rebounds against Atlanta in the beginning of the season with the Magic fully healthy - I like him to make it three for three against the Hawks tonight. Playable to over 17.5.

Caesar’s. Amen Thompson has cleared this line in six of his last eight games, and will be leaned on more tonight as the Rockets will be without Alperen Sengun. The Lakers rank 22nd in points allowed at the rim, and 25th in assists allowed at the basket. Thompson recorded 26 points against the Lakers earlier this season - look for him to break 20 again tonight.

DraftKings. Stephon Castle is averaging 16.5 points per game this season, but that number drops to 15.6 points in games played with both Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox. With both teammates active, Castle is under this line in. 27/43 games (and 4/6 without Dylan Harper). Narrowing it down even further, Castle is under this line in 17/25 games played with his two All Star teammates, against teams in the top 15 of paint points allowed. The Clippers rank 9th, which should force Castle, who shoots 31% from behind the arc, into facilitating mode.

FanDuel (1.5u). Ron Holland has cleared this line in 10 of his last 13 games. He’ll now face an awful Wizards defense in a game that’s ripe with blowout potential (especially with the Wizards coming off a game last night). I’m betting this line at 1.5 betting units and would bet over 8.5 points at one unit.

FanDuel. Jalen Green has been rolling, clearing this line in six straight games. He’ll face a Timberwolves defense that does not double team or help, and as a result, allows the most points to pick and roll ball-handlers. Green, who has now taken at least 20 shots in five straight games, should have ample volume in a paced up spot, with Minnesota a top ten tempo team. Devin Booker should absorb most of the Jaden McDaniels matchup, and the Wolves will also be without their offensive catalyst (and plus wing defender) in Anthony Edwards. The Suns will be sans Grayson Allen, leaving Booker and Green to carry the load. Playable to over 27.5.

FanDuel. Dylan Harper is expected to suit up tonight after missing the last two games with a calf injury. It’s a great spot for the rookie to get his feet back underneath him against the dreadful Kings, who rank 28th defensively this season. Against the bottom eight teams in defensive rating, Harper is over this line in 10/13 games this season.

FanDuel. Jumping back on the Justin Edwards wagon tonight. The Sixers wing has now cleared this line in each of his last four games with extended minutes. As the Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Kelly Oubre, Edwards will be looked upon to fill the void. Even if this game gets out of hand (which I expect) Edwards should still see 25+ minutes.

Caesar’s. Onyeka Okongwu has cleared this rebounds line in 14/18 games as a starter, when facing a bottom 12 team in rebounds allowed. The Mavericks are 27th in that department this season, and Okongwu cashed in on this same line against them just last week (9 rebounds). Look for the Hawks big man to continue to hit the boards tonight.

DraftKings. Since returning from his midseason injury, Austin Reaves is under this combined line in 9/13 games played alongside both LeBron James and Luka Doncic. In what should be another grind of a game between two teams that sit in the bottom 11 of the league in pace, I don’t see Reaves getting the requisite volume he’d need to clear this line. I’d bet this down to under 28.5.

FanDuel. Going to come back to Ronald Holland tonight, in a repeat matchup against the Wizards. We cashed the 1.5 unit play on Tuesday, but I’m reverting back to the standard one unit tonight and tacking on rebounds. While I have a little less confidence in Holland’s minutes floor tonight, it’s a smash spot for his playstyle against the uptempo yet porous defense of the Wizards.

Caesar’s at -108. Dylan Harper has cleared this line in 14 of his last 20 games when playing at least 20 minutes, a mark I like him to hit tonight. The Spurs will be without Stephon Castle, meaning Harper will be counted on to provide complementary playmaking on the wing.

DraftKings. Darius Garland hasn’t played both legs in a back-to-back since December, and was a game time call coming into yesterday’s game. Reading the tea leaves - he’s likely sitting today, which slides Kris Dunn into the starting lineup as the primary ball-handler. Without Garland or James Harden this season, Dunn has cleared this line in 11/14 games. I expect that trend to continue tonight against the Pelicans, who allow the sixth most assists per game.

FanDuel. Caris LaVert figures to play a significant role off the bench tonight for the Pistons, who will be without Cade Cunningham and Marcus Sasser. Functioning as the primary ball-handler of the second unit behind Davis’s Jenkins, look for LeVert to clear this line in his third straight game.

DraftKings. This is a sneaky spot for Aaron Gordon, who has cleared this line in 11/13 games with Nikola Jokic this season, when seeing at least 24 minutes of action. The minutes have been spotty, as Gordon has battled injuries all season, but he did play 35 minutes in a game against the Lakers last week - if this one stays close, he should see at least 30. And it’s a great spot for his skillset, as the Raptors rank 23rd against spot up opportunities.

DraftKings. Austin Reaves is under this line in 11/15 games played with both Luka Doncic and LeBron James since returning from his early season groin injury. With Luka playing at an MVP level, and LeBron also playing some of his best ball of the season, Reaves, who is dealing with hip soreness, has been the third wheel of late. The Magic make you beat them one-on-one and limit secondary opportunities and peripheral stats. With Reaves not getting as many on-ball opportunities, I’m loving the under here - playable to under 29.5.

DraftKings. Alperen Sengun is averaging 20.2 points per game this season, but much of that damage was done early on. Sengun’s average has dropped to 18.3 points per game since January 1st, as the big man has admittedly played at less than 100%. Lining up against the Heat front line, Sengun will face a tough matchup against both Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware - overall, the Heat allow the 11th fewest points to opposing centers (despite playing at the league’s fastest pace). Sengun is actually under this line in 21 of his last 25 games against teams outside the bottom ten in points allowed to centers.

FanDuel. Without Jalen Johnson and his 10.4 rebounds per game available tonight, I expect Onyeka Okongwu to pick up the slack on the boards. The Warriors allow the tenth most boards, and Okongwu is over this line 17/28 (60%) against teams in the bottom half of rebounds allowed. And he’s over this line in 4/6 without Johnson.

FanDuel. Coming off of the best game of his career, I’m backing Justin Edwards to notch at least 14 points for the fourth time in five games. The Sixers face the Jazz, who remain dead last in the NBA against both spot up shooters and in transition. Riding high with confidence, I expect another strong performance from Edwards.

Caesar’s. Dylan Cardwell has cleared this rebound line in 13/17 games he’s played between 16-24 minutes. An offensive rebounding specialist, he should dominate a Nets squad that will be without both of their centers today. Even in limited minutes (although they have been trending up since his return from injury), I expect Cardwell to cash in on the glass.

FanDuel. Paolo Banchero gets a prime matchup against the Pacers who allow the second most rebounds, and have been trotting out very small lineups of late. Banchero has double digit rebounds in both matchups against the Pacers this season, and I expect him to make it a third straight tonight.

DraftKings. Coming off an electric 24-point, 18-rebound performance in which he tipped in the game winning bucket at the buzzer, Amen Thompson is poised to shine once again on Monday. The athletic dynamo, who has cleared this line in four of his last five games, has an elite spot for his skillset tonight. The Bulls rank 22nd in rebounds allowed and 26th in opponent paint points. Against teams ranking in the bottom 15 of both categories, Thompson has cleared this line in 19/28 games, including 15 of his last 19. Playable to over 27.5.

FanDuel. Cooper Flagg has cleared this combined line in 17 of his last 24 full games. As the Mavericks essentially cleared the deck for him, allowing the rookie to be the focal point, Flagg has continued to produce. While his scoring has ebbed and flowed, his rebounding and facilitations have remained consistent - especially with a healthy PJ Washington, of whom Flagg has developed a strong rapport. The Warriors allow the eleventh most rebounds this season, and are roughly leave average with assists allowed. Look for Flagg to continue his statistical prowess.

FanDuel. Jordan Miller should find himself in a favorable spot tonight. The Clippers will be without both John Collins and Benedict Mathurin, and Kawhi Leonard has been dealing with an ankle injury. Miller, who is averaging 26.7 minutes per game in February, has cleared this points line in 9/13 games with 20+ minutes against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in defending spot up opportunities (Miller’s dominant playtype). With the Bucks ranking 29th in that department, I like Miller to thrive off the ball as a scorer tonight.

DraftKings/alt line on FanDuel. The Sacramento Kings are down a laundry list of players tonight, and Malik Monk is likely to be thrust into a significant role, as he was on Sunday (30 minutes, 32 points). Monk has cleared this points line in 7/7 games this season with just 22+ minutes without Zach LaVine. The Kings only have three ball-handlers active tonight with Monk, Devin Carter and Demar Derozan. Monk’s game should translate well against a Hornets defense that doesn’t help off-ball. It might not be pretty, but the Kings don’t have many other options right now, and Monk is a capable microwave scorer. I’d bet this to over 18.5.

FanDuel. Averaging 18.7 points per game this season (in 27.6 minutes), Dejounte Murray has returned from his Achilles injury to bring some life to the listless Pelicans. With his rotation now at a consistent 30 minutes, I like this spot for him tonight. The Knicks have struggled all season against three-level scoring, pick and roll ball-handlers, ranking 25th against the playtype. After a tough game against a stingier pick and roll defense of the Cavaliers, I expect Murray to bounce back tonight.

FanDuel at -122. With the Spurs all but locked into the two seed in the western conference, they’ve taken advantage by giving some of their stars some maintenance days for nagging injuries, in advance of the playoffs. Tonight, De’Aaron Fox will be out, and that means Dylan Harper should once again draw significant playing time. The second overall pick is coming consecutive 20+ point games, and figures to be leaned on heavily against the taking Grizzlies.

FanDuel. Jaden McDaniels has cleared this combined line in 12 of 14 games without Anthony Edwards this season. One of those misses was 23 PRA in a blowout against the Jazz, and the other the second leg of a back to back. Now without Ayo Dosunmu available, the Timberwolves offense will rely on McDaniels to take on a bigger role. Barring foul trouble, look for McDaniels to play major minutes tonight. I like this up to over 23.5.

DraftKings. Since re-entering the rotation, Gary Payton II has emerged as a model of consistency for the Warriors. Payton has cleared this line in 14 of his last 18 games, including each of his last eight. Thriving in transition and off cuts to the basket, this is the perfect spot for him. The Nets rank 25th against transition opportunities, 28th against spot ups, and 24th in assists allowed at the rim.

FanDuel. Christian Braun has cleared this line in nine of his last 12 games without Aaron Gordon, who is inactive tonight. With Peyton Watson not starting, it tells me he’s still on a strict minutes limit. Look for Braun to play third fiddle for the Nuggets in what should be a fast paced matchup.

DraftKings. This is an elite spot for Deni Avdija, one of the most aggressive dribble drivers in the NBA. The Mavericks are a rim funnel, and their defensive strategy is to not help off ball. Issue is that they don't have any rim protection. They rank 28th in points allowed at the rim, with Deni going for 29 and 27 against them this season. I'd bet this to over 24.5.

FanDuel. Gary Payton II missed on his points prop for us last game against the Nets, but he's still over this line in 12 of his last 15 games. With De'Anthony Melton sitting this one out, there should be more opportunity for Payton, in an ideal spot against the lowly, fast paced Wizards.

DraftKings. Maxime Raynaud is one of the few (if not only) bright spots remaining for another lost Kings season. The rookie big man has cleared this points line in 10 of his last 14 games. He'll face a Hawks team that's very stingy defensively on the perimeter, but not as much down low. They rank 28th against pick and roll men this season, and 23rd in terms of opponents points in the restricted area. Plus, Onyeka Okongwu has been ruled out, and Jock Landale is questionable. Raynaud gets minutes no matter the gamescript, and should be featured heavily tonight.

Caesar's. With the Jazz tanking, and battling the litany of "injuries" throughout the roster, Cody Williams has been thrust into a high usage role. The second year wing has cleared this line in six of his last seven games. His minutes fluctuate, with the Jazz more likely to let him loose in games they have a higher likelihood to lose. Tonight should be one of those instances, against the Suns in a game with a 16.5-point spread.

DraftKings. Kel'el Ware has re-emerged as a key piece for the Heat down the stretch of the regular season. Averaging more than 20 points plus rebounds in March, Ware has cleared this line in nine of his last thirteen games. He'll have a terrific matchup today against the Pacers who've allowed the third most P+R to opposing centers over the last 30 games. They specifically struggle inside (allowing the second most points within 10 feet of the basket this season) and on the glass (third most rebounds allowed).

FanDuel. The battle between the Raptors and Magic is one of those understated games with significant playoff seeding implications, as both teams are jockeying for positioning in the eastern conference. I expect the Magic to continue to rely on their main guys, one of which of late has been Wendell Carter Jr. The big man has cleared this line in 12 of the last 16 games, and has one of the Magic's decisive advantages down low against Jakob Poeltl. I'd bet this to over 19.5.

FanDuel (1.5u). Luka Garza finds himself in a unique spot tonight. Not only are the Celtics resting Jayson Tatum, but both Neemias Queta and Nikola Vucevic are also sitting tonight, leaving Garza to absorb the bulk of the big man minutes. The Hawks have been excellent defensively, but the one area they do struggle is down low, ranking 28th against roll men and 23rd overall against points in the restricted area. Even if the Celtics pivot and go with smaller rotations (which I do expect due to the lack of front-court depth tonight), Garza should still clear this line in his normal minute allotment, let alone any extended looks.

Caesar's. Jalen Suggs is under this PRA line in 8/12 March games, coinciding with Anthony Black's absence in the backcourt. Tonight, Suggs will face a Suns squad that plays at a snails pace (24th in tempo) while maintaining a stingy defense (10th overall). They're particularly strong against what Suggs does best - allowing the fewest above the break three pointers, the fourth fewest transition points, and the seventh fewest assists. All of this adds up to the third fewest PRA allowed to guards. Plus, Suggs will likely be the primary defender on Devin Booker tonight - not the easiest of assignments. I'd bet this down to under 23.5.

DraftKings. While Alperen Sengun has put together some solid performances of late, it's largely come in softer matchups for the Rockets big man. Tonight shouldn't be one of those, as the Knicks have allowed the fewest combined points rebounds and assists to opposing centers, both over the course of the season and over the last 15 games. The Rockets running bigger lineups make it easier for the Knicks to play Mitchell Robinson more minutes - the Knicks backup center and defensive dynamo has been eating into Karl-Anthony Towns' playing time as is. Sengun is under this line in 12/19 games against teams in the top 10 of allowing centers the fewest combined PRA, including 10 of the last 11. I'd bet this to under 32.5.

FanDuel. Bennedict Mathurin came back from a short absence for "injury maintenance" without missing a beat. The Arizona alum has fit right back in with the new look Clippers - in fact, he's cleared this combined line in all nine games he's played alongside both Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland. The matchup tonight really suits his skillset - the Blazers allow the tenth most free throw attempts per game, and the aggressive Mathurin has 11+ FTA in each of his last three games. Plus, Portland is 27th and 29th against trabsition offense and pick and roll ball handlers, respectively. Bet on Mathurin to continue on his recent run.

FanDuel. Bennedict Mathurin came back from a short absence for "injury maintenance" without missing a beat. The Arizona alum has fit right back in with the new look Clippers - in fact, he's cleared this combined line in all nine games he's played alongside both Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland. The matchup tonight really suits his skillset - the Blazers allow the tenth most free throw attempts per game, and the aggressive Mathurin has 11+ FTA in each of his last three games. Plus, Portland is 27th and 29th against trabsition offense and pick and roll ball handlers, respectively. Bet on Mathurin to continue on his recent run.

DraftKings. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is coming off a March in which he averaged 22.7 points per game. Without the departed Trae Young, and with Jalen Johnson, NAW has cleared this line in 35/55 games (64%), and in 3/3 overall against Orlando overall this season. He's been awesome, and the Magic have struggled defensively against the perimeter all season. I expect the Hawks to lean on their main guys tonight in a game with massive playoff seeding implications in the Eastern Conference.

FanDuel. Cody Williams has cleared this line in eight of the last ten games he's played without both Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George. With Isaiah Collier also out tonight, that Williams hit rate on this line climbs to 5/6 - and I expect him to continue on that trend tonight. The Jazz clearly have nothing to do but lose, which should be no issue tonight against Denver who is favored by 17 points. Williams is playing big minutes no matter the gamescript, and he should continue to thrive in a high usage role tonight. Also playable at over 14.5 points.

FanDuel. Another game where the Spurs won't need to lean on their big guns - another game where Dylan Harper should find success off the bench. Harper has cleared this line in 9/12 games this season when playing between 20-26 minutes, with Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox all active, and against a team in the bottom half of the NBA in transition defense. Super specific, I know - but the Warriors rank 24th in that metric and have most of their better players resting tonight as well. The Spurs have been cruising of late, and Harper has settled into his role, clearing this line in six of his last seven games. I expect that trend to continue tonight.

FanDuel (at -122). Even in a tough matchup, this is a low line for Ayo Dosunmu, who has been crashing the boards for the undermanned Timberwolves of late. Ayo has cleared this line in four straight without Anthony Edwards, with 10+ rebound chances in each game. Look for him to make it five straight tonight.

DraftKings. Toumani Camara is coming off 23 and 17 point performances, as he's functioned as the primary spot up shooter for the Trail Blazers without Jerami Grant available. With Grant remaining out, I expect Camara to build on the 13/20 trend of clearing this line without him. Within that sample, Camara is over this line in 10/12 against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in catch and shoot points allowed - the Pelicans rank 26th in that department. With Scoot Henderson sliding into the starting lineup, it adds yet another facilitator off the dribble for Camara's spot up opportunities - the Pelicans also do limit pick and roll ball handlers to the third lowest play frequency.

FanDuel. This is a sneaky spot for one of my early season favorites, Julian Champagnie. With Victor Wembanyama sitting this one out, Champagnie should see an uptick in usage and minutes. It's a solid spot against the Clippers drop coverage defense - Champagnie should find open looks from long range. Not only is the versatile wing over in 9/15 games without Wemby this season, but he's also been surprisingly solid in back to backs, clearing this line in 11/14. I'd bet this to over 16.5.

FanDuel. With Moussa Diabete, Grant Williams and PJ Hall all ruled out, the Hornets will be very thin on the front line. Ryan Kalkbrenner, who has been playing well of late in his reserve role, should absorb most of the center minutes tonight, in a great matchup against the Pacers weak interior defense.

DraftKings. Tyrese Maxey is averaging 7.5 assists across the 33 games he's played with Joel Embiid, clearing this line in 21 of those games. While the Timberwolves seem like a tougher assists matchup on the surface, allowing the 10th fewest per game, they're actually a pick and roll funnel, allowing the 27th most points to roll-men. Embiid is the game's pre-eminent scorer out of that playtype, with Maxey serving as his primary facilitator. With both guys back healthy and playing big minutes, look for Maxey to clear this line for the fourth straight game.

FanDuel. Wendell Carter has cleared this line in 14 of the last 18 games against teams in the bottom ten at defending the restricted area - the Mavericks rank 28th in that department. Yes, many of those games were without Franz Wagner, who is back in the Magic lineup, but likely on a strict minutes limit. Carter has a decisive matchup down low against the Mavericks big men, and I expect him to see enough shot volume tonight.

DraftKings / Caesar's. Saddiq Bey has cleared this points line in 14 of his last 18 games without Dejounte Murray, who is resting tonight on the second leg of the back to back. I like the matchup for Bey against the defensive sieve of the Kings on the wing. Sacramento has been half decent at protecting the paint with Precious Achiuwa and Dylan Cardwell, posing a harder matchup for Zion Williamson. Bey and Trey Murphy (who has a balky ankle) should thrive in transition and behind the arc tonight.

FanDuel. Kel’el Ware, who possesses the NBA’s sixth best offensive rebound percentage amongst qualifiers, gets an elite matchup today against the Wizards who rank dead last in offensive rebounds allowed and offensive rebound percentage allowed. Ware has cleared this line in 10/14 games this season against opponents in the bottom eight of offensive rebounds allowed per game. His minutes have fluctuated, but there is a clear path to playing time today as the spread for this game is a hefty 17.5 against the tanking Wizards. When the closing line spread has been at least -7 in the Heat’s favor, Ware is 9/12 to the over. At this price, I love this line.

FanDuel. I’m going to keep beating the Dylan Harper drum. He’s cleared this line in 16 of the last 22 games he’s played with Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle, with most of the misses coming in tougher matchups (the Knicks, Pistons twice, Thunder and Celtics). The Nuggets are the league’s 21st rated defense, and below average in what Harper does best offensively. With his rotation now up to 22-24 minutes, I like this spot for Harper.

FanDuel. Duncan Robinson has hit at least three shots from long range in 12 of 14 games without Cade Cunningham this season. He’s also cleared this line in all three games against the Sixers, who rank 20th against catch and shoot three point attempts.

DraftKings. Let’s run with the hot hand tonight. Wendell Carter Jr. cashed us out in style on Friday night, scoring a season high 28-points in a season high 36 regulation minutes. While I don’t envision him scoring at that rate again, I do like him to net at least half of that total in a soft matchup against the Pelicans front line. The Pels have allowed the eighth most points to centers this season. Anthony Black remains out and Franz Wagner’s minutes are still heavily capped. With the Magic locked in a battle for playoff/play-in positioning, it’s clear that they will lean on their starters for big minutes down the stretch.

FanDuel. Insert the “I accidentally got important at work” meme. Rui Hachimura will be thrust into a significant role down the stretch for the Lakers in the absence of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Without Doncic this season, Hachimura has cleared this line in 8/12 games. I like the matchup here - Rui has averaged 22.3 P+R across the three matchups versus Dallas this season. The Mavericks funnel action to the rim, and Hachimura’s three level scoring should flash in a more bal dominant role without Luka and Reaves.

FanDuel. Bennedict Mathurin has cleared this line in 10/11 games he’s played with both Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland, averaging 26.3 points plus rebounds in those contests. A matchup against the Kings should bring Mathurin a fantastic opportunity to continue on that streak, as they are incredibly weak defensively on the perimeter. Look for Mathurin to help to lead the charge for the Clippers tonight.

FanDuel. Mikal Bridges is under this line in 21 of the last 28 games he’s played alongside with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby. With those three stars healthy, as well as the Knicks reserves, I’m looking at fading the Knicks fourth/fifth option. Knicks coach Mike Brown has shown a willingness to go with his bench guys (Landry Shamet, Miles McBride, Jordan Clarkson) for minutes at the expense of Bridges. The Hawks possess the NBA’s third best defense over the last fifteen games as well.

Caesar’s. Scoot Henderson has only eclipsed this line in 7 of his 23 games this season. Despite being off his minutes restriction, the third year guard’s minutes have fluctuated as he’s lost playing time to the likes of Matisse Thybulle and Kris Murray. Also notable, Scoot has only cleared this line once in 14 games on the road, where his shooting numbers plummet (37% overall, 27% from three). I’d bet this down to under 21.5.

DraftKings. Ayo Dosunmu has cleared this rebound line in eight of his last ten games, including five of six without Anthony Edwards. Both Edwards and Jaden McDaniels will be out tonight, which should put Dosunmu in a spot to once again play 32+ minutes. He’ll face a Pacers team that’s allowed the third most rebounds this season, and the third most to guards specifically.

DraftKings. Cody Williams has cleared this line in seven of his last 12 games. As the Jazz are very clearly in the business of losing basketball games, Williams remains the one guy whose minutes remain relatively consistent (36+ over the last four games). With Ace Bailey likely out tonight, Williams should once again see an uptick in usage and shot volume. The Pelicans represent a paced up matchup and bleed transition points, spot up opportunities and assists.

DraftKings. Lamelo Ball faces a tough matchup tonight. The Celtics allow the second fewest combined points plus rebounds plus assists to guards this season, and Lamelo has remained under this line in both matchups versus Boston. In fact, the youngest Ball brother is under this line in 19/24 games he’s played with Brandon Miller and Miles Briges, against teams in the top half of the NBA of PRA allowed to guards. The Celtics were able to slow him down just last week (26 PRA) despite missing their two best perimeter defenders in Derrick White and Jaylen Brown. Look for Lamelo to remain inefficient tonight.

DraftKings at -112. Gary Payton II has cleared this points line in 15 of his last 19 games. Yes, Steph Curry is back - but tonight, both Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos are out. Payton should be able to continue to carve out his role in transition, where the Kings really struggle.

FanDuel. One of the more underrated aspects of Jalen Johnson’s progression into stardom this season has been his improvement as a jump shooter. The first-time All Star is shooting 35% on 4.8 threes attempted per game. And since March 1st - he’s up to 39% on 5.3 attempts. Tonight is a great spot to fire on his three point prop as he’ll face the twin tower defense of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen inside. Cleveland is sixth in paint points allowed, and 12th in transition points allowed - when Johnson faces teams in the top 18 of both metrics, he’s cleared this line in 15/21 games, since the Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis departures.

Caesar’s. In 16 games without Victor Wembanyama this season, Keldon Johnson has cleared this rebound line a whopping 15 times, including 10 and 8 in two matchups against Portland. In 729 minutes this season without both Wemby and Stephon Castle on the floor, Johnson sees the biggest uptick in his rebounds with 6.4 per just 24 minutes. The Spurs do not have much to play for, so minutes could get wonky, but I do think this is worth a bet at plus odds.

DraftKings / Caesar’s. With Mark Williams ruled out, this reads as a solid spot to back Oso Ighodaro. The Suns big man had cleared this line in six of the last eight games in Williams’ absence, and had acquitted himself well in a reserve roll. Williams’ return had re-emphasized the need to get post touches for the Suns, and this is a solid spot to do so for Oso. The Mavericks have remained a paint funnel almost all season, ranking 28th in points at the rim and 26th in points to pick and roll men.

FanDuel. This is one of the most “important” games on the schedule for Brooklyn tonight. After going out of their way to lose games all season, the Nets have inexplicably won their last two games, meaning they have lose out to guarantee top three lottery odds (i.e. the best chance at the #1 and/or a top 4 pick). Predictably, they are benching anyone who can score even remotely efficiently tonight. And schematically, the Nets will be playing a bunch of guards/wings who struggle to finish at the rim against a team that funnels ball-handlers that way.

FanDuel. Without Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard has been thrust into an on-ball role to complement LeBron James. He’s cleared this line in each of the last two games, and should be in position once again tonight. The Warriors have allowed the tenth most assists over their last ten games, and they shoot a ton of threes, producing a lot of long rebounds for Kennard to capitalize on. Besides LeBron, nobody on the Lakers can create their own shot, and Kennard has been moving the ball at an elite pace (1.7 passes per minute over the last two games). And I do see the Lakers going all out to win tonight for playoff seeding.

FanDuel. Scottie Barnes is under this combined points, rebounds and assists line in 25/38 games this season against teams that rank in the top half of the NBA of paint protection, including 12 of the last 13. The Knicks allow the third fewest paint points, as well as the sixth fewest rebound and third fewest assists. Brandon Ingram’s mid-range and pull-up arsnenal, as well as RJ Barrett’s long range shooting are better means to attack this Knick defense, especially with Barnes likely drawing the OG Anunoby individual matchup. Plus, Barnes has not performed well in back to backs all season, averaging 25.5 PRA. Bet this one down to under 30.5 with confidence.

FanDuel (-112). I am once again going to fade the tanking Nets on their team total. Tonight, they will face the Bucks in what profiles as a snail-like matchup. Both teams are in the bottom eight of the NBA in team pace. And with each squad actively looking to lose, we’re sure to see some questionable offense. These two teams played just three days ago in a game that only had 93 offensive possessions - two full possessions slower than the Celtics, who are the league’s slowest team. The Nets actually shot at a league average rate in that game, and didn’t turn the ball over, and only mustered 90 points.

Caesar’s. Scoot Henderson is under this line in 5/7 games without Jerami Grant this season in regulation. Tonight should be a playoff atmosphere against the slow paced Clippers - I like Portland to lean on Deni Avdija and Jrue Holiday tonight. The wildcard is Shaedon Sharpe’s return; the dynamic guard will play after a 28-game absence. Even though Sharpe will be heavily limited, it does give Portland another on-ball option that could cut into Scoot’s usage.

After missing two games with an illness, Kelly Oubre Jr. returned and scored 24 points against the Hawks on Saturday. He played 36 minutes and has now scored at least 18 points in six of his last 10 games. The 76ers will need him to increase his production Monday with both Tyrese Maxey (finger) and Joel Embiid (oblique) out. Combined, those two average 55.6 points and 40.1 shot attempts per game. The potential for plenty of minutes and shot attempts for Oubre make this over appealing.

With the Warriors being shorthanded, Brandin Podziemski averaged 34 minutes over the last eight games. During that span, he combined for at least 11 rebounds and assists six times. The two times that he didn’t, he finished with 10 combined both times. This is a great matchup for him against the Jazz, who rank 24th in rebounds allowed and 26th in assists allowed over their last 10 games. The last two times he faced them, Podziemski finished with 14 and 15 combined rebounds and assists despite not playing more than 28 minutes in either game. Don’t be surprised if he blows past this over.

Kelly Oubre Jr. got into early foul trouble Monday and only played 14 minutes against the Cavaliers. Despite being burned by that performance, I can’t resist taking him to hit this over Tuesday. He has a great matchup against the Grizzlies, who have played at the 10th-fastest pace and have the seventh-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. This game will also be played in Philadelphia, where Oubre shoots 49.3% from the field. I like this bounce-back spot for him.

The Heat have already ruled out Norman Powell (groin), Andrew Wiggins (toe) and Kel’el Ware (shoulder) against the Wizards. Tyler Herro (quadriceps) is also listed as questionable. Over the last five games without Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr. averaged 18.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists. In the last two games without Powell and Wiggins, Jaquez had 27 and 32 combined points, rebounds and assists. The Wizards have the worst defensive rating in the league and have given up the most rebounds per game. Jaquez has the potential to produce a juicy stat line.

Brandon Miller has the potential to be a nightmare matchup for the Trail Blazers. Portland has allowed the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league over their last 10 games. Miller is shooting 43.3% from deep on the road for the season. When these two teams played in Charlotte less than two weeks ago, Miller went 6-for-12 from behind the arc on his way to scoring 26 minutes. Combine all of that with Coby White (calf) being ruled out and Miller could blow past this line.

After missing one game with an ankle injury, Josh Giddey returned and played 34 minutes against the Kings on Sunday. He finished with 15 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. The Bulls haven’t been holding him back, having him log at least 32 minutes in each of his last three games. In each of those games, he combined for at least 18 rebounds and assists. Over their last 10 games, the Warriors rank 27th in rebounds allowed per game and 17th in assists allowed per game. I think Giddey plays at least 30 minutes again, giving him a great opportunity to hit this over.

Darius Garland logged 30 minutes in his last game, scoring 23 points against the Knicks. He attempted 16 shots, nine of which came from behind the arc. In his previous game, he scored 21 points on 20 shot attempts against the Grizzlies. That included eight three-point attempts. For his career, Garland shoots 38.6% from deep. With a hefty usage rate and around 30 minutes likely coming his way again, the over is the way to go here.

Onyeka Okongwu has recorded at least eight rebounds in six of his last seven games. That included a matchup with the Nets in which he had 11 rebounds over 32 minutes. The Nets have the worst field goal percentage in the league, so rebounding opportunities shouldn’t be difficult for Okongwu to come by again Thursday. Also helping his cause is that he averages 8.2 rebounds at home, versus 7.4 a night on the road.

Josh Giddey posted 13 rebounds and 17 assists versus the Warriors on Tuesday. He played 43 minutes, showing that he is clearly past the ankle injury that recently bothered him. Giddey has logged at least 32 minutes and combined for at least 18 rebounds and assists in each of his last four games. With minute restrictions no longer an issue, I like Giddey’s chances of racking up rebounds and assists again. It also helps that this game is on the road, where he averages 9.1 rebounds and 9.4 assists for the season.

The return of Deni Avdija has not had a negative impact on Scoot Henderson. In Avdija’s first game back, Henderson scored 28 points over 26 minutes in a blowout win over the Pacers. In the second game, he scored 17 points over 19 minutes in a narrow loss to the Hornets. The Jazz are missing several key players and have the worst defensive rating in the league, so Henderson could approach 25 minutes and score in bunches. The last time he faced the Jazz, he scored 15 points despite only playing 20 minutes. This game is also in Portland, where Henderson shoots 46.4% from the field. Take the over.

Darius Garland (toe) will not play Friday. Kris Dunn has already been performing well, averaging 5.4 rebounds and 4.9 assists over his last 11 games. Over the last six games that Garland has missed, Dunn combined for at least nine rebounds and assists four times. The Bulls play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league, which should afford Dunn with even more opportunities to rack up rebounds and assists. The last time he played them, Dunn recorded five rebounds and six assists. I like him to remain productive in this rematch.

Dyson Daniels (toe) will return after sitting out Thursday’s game against the Nets. Prior to that, he had combined for at least 13 rebounds and assists in seven straight games. This is a favorable matchup for him to excel in both areas again. Over their last 10 games, the Bucks have allowed the third-most assists per game and the fourth-most rebounds per game in the league. In two previous games against the Bucks, Daniels combined for 19 and 13 rebounds and assists.

Darius Garland did not play Friday against the Bulls as the Clippers continue to hold him out for one game of back-to-back sets. He will return Saturday in what is a great matchup against the Kings, who have the third-worst defensive rating in the league. There is some blowout risk here, but Garland has scored at least 21 points in three straight games despite logging 26 or fewer minutes in two of them. He made 13 three-pointers over that span, which is noteworthy because the Kings allow the third-highest three-point shooting percentage. I won’t be surprised if Garland reaches at least 20 points again, let alone the 18 needed to hit this over.

The 76ers continue to play without Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, Paul George and Kelly Oubre Jr. With those four out, Justin Edwards started each of the last two games. First, he scored 12 points over 29 minutes against a good defensive team in the Pistons. He followed that up with 19 points over 31 minutes against the Nets on Saturday. He was productive despite shooting a combined 0-for-5 from three in the two games. He is shooting 34.9% from deep for the season and the Trail Blazers have allowed the ninth-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league over their last 10 games. I like Edwards’ chances of reaching at least 12 points again.

Kyle Filipowski (rest) and Ace Bailey (concussion) will not play against the Kings. Even with those two in the fold lately, Brice Sensabaugh has scored at least 21 points in three straight games. In his last two games, he scored 29 and 31 points. The Kings have the third-worst defensive rating in the league, so with Sensabaugh likely to play around 30 minutes, he has the potential to hit this over.

Gui Santos scored 20 points against the Knicks on Sunday. That marked the 14th time over his last 19 games that he scored at least 15 points. The Warriors have leaned heavily on Santos, leaving him to average 36 minutes over their last six games. During that stretch, he averaged 15.0 field goal attempts and 3.3 free throw attempts a night. The Wizards play at the sixth-fastest pace and have the second-worst defensive rating in the league, so Santos should have ample opportunities to score at least 15 points again.

Matas Buzelis is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game for the season, but he has averaged 6.6 rebounds over 15 games since the trade deadline. In 12 of those games, he reached at least six rebounds. The Bulls have been playing him more, leaving him to average 31 minutes over those 15 games. The Bulls and the Grizzlies both rank inside the top-10 in the league in pace of play and the Grizzlies have allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game in the league over their last 10 games. With at least 30 minutes likely coming his way again, Buzelis has a great opportunity to grab at least six rebounds.

Brandon Miller averages 21.7 points and 5.3 rebounds at home. That’s where he will face the Heat, who play at the fastest pace in the league. That has resulted in Miami ranking 20th in points allowed and 28th in rebounds allowed per game. When Miller faced them in Charlotte less than two weeks ago, he posted 22 points and 13 rebounds. He could blow past this line in their rematch.

Ausar Thompson made his return from an ankle injury to play 24 minutes against the Raptors on Sunday. It wasn’t an ideal matchup against a good defensive team with length, which contributed to him finishing with one rebound and three assists. For the season, he averages 5.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists in 26 minutes per game. Prior to his injury, Thompson posted at least eight rebounds and assists in 13 of 15 games. The Wizards allow the most rebounds per game and the second-most assists per game in the league, making this over appealing. The last time he faced them, Thompson recorded nine rebounds and three assists.

Scoot Henderson has scored at least 16 points in four of his last five games. That included a 28-point performance against the tanking Pacers, who he will play again Wednesday. In their first meeting, he played 26 minutes and shot 10-for-15 from the field. Vit Krejci (calf) is out Wednesday, so Henderson has a great opportunity to play around 25 minutes again. With the Pacers having the worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games, Henderson could sail past this line.

Brandon Ingram scored 36 and 34 points in his last two games. He did so against two very good defensive teams in the Suns and Pistons. He has a much easier opponent Wednesday in the Bulls, who play at the fourth-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. In his last two games against them, he scored 33 and 31 points. I like his chances of hitting this over.

Jalen Duren scored 36 points against the Wizards on Tuesday. Washington continues to be torched by big men. In the four games prior to Duren’s scoring outburst, they gave up 30 points to Kristaps Porzingis, 24 points to Neemias Queta, 19 points to Wendell Carter Jr. and 83 points to Bam Adebayo. With Cade Cunningham (lung) out, Duren should have an increased usage rate and shine against the Wizards again.

As the Jazz crank up their tanking efforts, Cody Williams has averaged 35 minutes over their last eight games. He came away with at least eight combined rebounds and assists in six of them. The two games that he didn’t, he combined for seven rebounds and assists in both of them. When he played the Bucks less than two weeks ago, he finished with 11 rebounds and two assists. The Bucks have allowed the third-most rebounds a night and the third-most assists a night in the NBA over their last 10 games, so I’ll take this over for Williams.

The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) for at least the next week. There were reports that they want to shut him down completely as they turn their attention toward the draft and next season. That shift in focus could mean more playing time for Ousmane Dieng, who has already averaged 28 minutes over his last seven games. He scored at least 11 points in five of them. The potential for around 30 minutes against a Jazz team that has the worst defensive rating in the league makes this over appealing.

Despite Jayson Tatum returning, Baylor Scheierman has still averaged 29 minutes over the last six games. He grabbed at least five rebounds in each game and averaged 7.5 rebounds during the stretch. He could play even more Friday when the Celtics take on the tanking Grizzlies. Even if the Celtics don’t sit some of their starters, they could give them limited minutes, which would help Scheierman. The Grizzlies also don’t have much size, which has resulted in them allowing the sixth-most rebounds per game in the league over their last 10 games. I’ll pay the juice and take this over.

Quentin Grimes scored 27 points against the defensively challenged Kings on Thursday. He took 20 shot attempts, six of which came from behind the arc. With the 76ers missing so many key players, he has scored at least 23 points in five of his last eight games. The Jazz have the second-worst defensive rating in the league, so I like Grimes to stay hot in the scoring department.

With the 76ers shorthanded, Justin Edwards started and averaged 29 minutes over the last five games. In three of them, he scored at least 19 points. That included a 32-point performance versus the Kings on Thursday. He is shooting 37.5% from behind the arc and the Jazz have allowed the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league on their way to posting the second-worst defensive rating. Edwards has a great opportunity to score at least 15 points again.

Jalen Green continues to jack up a ton of shots. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 19.8 shots, 8.9 of which have come from behind the arc. That helped him average 23.9 points per game. That included a 34-point performance against the Raptors, who he will play again Sunday. Even though the Raptors are a good defensive, Green should shoot enough to give himself a good chance of hitting this over.

Amen Thompson has scored at least 19 points in nine of his last 12 games. Helping his cause is that he averages 37 minutes per game for the season. Monday brings an excellent matchup against the Bulls, who play at the fourth-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. The last time he played them, he scored 23 points over 42 minutes. I don’t see how the Bulls slow him down in this rematch.

Jordan Miller averaged 26 minutes and 11.8 points over his last nine games. Helping his cause for hitting this over is that Monday’s game against the Bucks will be at home, where Miller shoots 56.9% from the field and 34.2% from behind the arc. The Bucks have also been terrible, posting the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Kawhi Leonard (ankle) is questionable, so if he sits, Miller could see more minutes and a higher usage rate. If Leonard plays, the Clippers could blow the Bucks out, which might leave more fourth quarter minutes for Miller. Whichever scenario plays out, Miller has a favorable opportunity to reach at least 12 points.

When Dejounte Murray first returned from injury, he was on a minute restriction. However, he has played at least 30 minutes in five of his last six games. Over those six games, he averaged 20.8 points, 14.2 shot attempts and 4.0 free throw attempts. He shoots 34.0% from behind the arc for the season, which could be a problem for the Knicks because they rank 18th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed over their last 10 games. I think the Pelicans can keep the game close enough for Murray to reach 30 minutes, so I’ll take this over.

Since returning from injury, Devin Booker has averaged 28.5 points over his last 12 games. That included him scoring at least 30 points in four of his last seven games. As the Suns continue to play without Dillon Brooks (hand), Booker averaged 21.3 shot attempts and 8.0 free throw attempts over those 12 games. The Nuggets have the 10th-worst defensive rating in the league, which makes this over even more appealing for Booker.

Josh Giddey has averaged 36 minutes over his last 10 games. That helped him average 9.5 rebounds and 11.9 assists a night. In eight of those games, he finished with at least 19 combined rebounds and assists. One time that he didn’t, he just missed with 18 combined in a terrible matchup against the Thunder. The 76ers aren’t as troublesome because they rank 15th in rebounds allowed per game and 24th in assists allowed per game over their last 10 games. In two previous games against them, Giddey had 17 and 27 combined rebounds and assists. I think he shines again.

Jalen Smith played 26 minutes and hit three three-pointers against the Rockets on Monday. After battling a calf injury, he has played at least 26 minutes in four of his last five games. The one time he didn’t, he logged just 17 minutes in a lopsided loss to the Raptors. With him playing more, he made at least two three-pointers in four of those five games. The 76ers have allowed the eighth-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league over their last 10 games and Smith shoots 40.0% from deep on the road for the season. After making at least two threes in both of his first two meetings with the 76ers, I think he reaches this over Wednesday.

Peyton Watson scored 14 points over 20 minutes against the Trail Blazers on Friday in his return from injury. The Nuggets sat him Tuesday against the Suns because they didn’t want him to play in both halves of their back-to-back set. I think Aaron Gordon will sit for rest Wednesday. He also has not played consecutive days since returning from an injury of his own. Watson could play around 25 minutes against a Mavericks team that has the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Watson averages 14.9 points per game for the season, so I’ll bite on this discount and take the over.

The Magic continue to play without Franz Wagner (ankle) and Anthony Black (abdomen). Tristan da Silva has started each of the last 10 games without them, averaging 14.0 points and 31 minutes a night. Five of those games came at home and he scored at least 12 points in each of them. In three of those home games, he topped 20 points. The Kings have the third-worst defensive rating in the league, so with plenty of minutes coming his way, I like da Silva to continue his hot scoring stretch.

Darius Garland has scored at least 19 points in seven of his last nine games. During that span, he averaged 23.1 points in 29 minutes per game. The last time he faced the Pacers, he was still on a minute restriction in his return from injury. He only played 24 minutes, but still scored 12 points. The Pacers might be able to keep this game somewhat close with Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard expected to play. That means Garland could log around 30 minutes against a team that has the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. Take this over.

Jared McCain only scored six points over 13 minutes against the Celtics on Wednesday. It was a close game, so the Thunder gave more minutes to their starters. This has the potential to be a blowout against the Bulls, who allowed 157 points in a 20-point loss to the 76ers on Wednesday. The Thunder recently blew out two bad teams in the Wizards and Nets. McCain played 28 minutes in each game, scoring 26 and 18 points. I think he plays around 20 minutes against the Bulls, leaving him with a great opportunity to hit this over.

Daniss Jenkins has started five straight games with Cade Cunningham (chest) out. After scorning nine points on 3-for-16 shooting the first game, he has scored at least 19 points in four straight. During that five-game stretch, he averaged 38 minutes, 14.2 shot attempts and 4.4 free throw attempts per game. The Timberwolves will be without three of their best perimeter defenders in Anthony Edwards (knee), Jaden McDaniels (knee) and Ayo Dosunmu (calf), which puts Jenkins in a favorable position to hit this over.

In a difficult matchup versus the Thunder on Friday, Josh Giddey emerged with seven rebounds and 11 assists. He has been excelling in both departments, averaging 9.3 rebounds and 11.8 assists over his last 12 games. That included a battle with the Grizzlies in which he recorded 15 rebounds and 13 assists. The Grizzlies give up the fifth-most rebounds per game and the ninth-most assists per game in the league, so look for Giddey to also shine in their rematch.

The Rockets recently benched Tari Eason, moving Reed Sheppard into the starting lineup. Over the last five games since that move was made, Sheppard combined for at least eight rebounds and assists each time. During the stretch, he averaged 4.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists. The last time he faced the Pelicans, he had five rebounds and three assists off the bench. Look for him to be productive in both departments again.

Nikola Jokic averaged 13.3 assists over his last 11 games. He dished out at least 11 assists in nine of those 11 games. The Nuggets are finally healthy, so with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson back in the fold, Jokic has a lot of excellent finishers around him. The Warriors rank 19th in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games, so I like Jokic's chances of hitting this over.

After missing 10 straight games with a finger injury, Tyrese Maxey returned Saturday against the Hornets. He wasn't eased back into action, logging 43 minutes. He scored 26 points, which is impressive because the Hornets have the sixth-best defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Over their last 10 games, the Heat rank 23rd in defensive rating. The Heat have also played at the fastest pace in the league for the season. In two previous games against them, Maxey scored 27 and 28 points. This is an important game for both teams for playoff seeding, so I think Maxey plays a ton and hits this over.

Tre Jones continues to start for the Bulls down the stretch. Over the last 14 games, he has averaged 16.8 points and 5.1 assists. With regards to this prop, he combined for at least 19 points and assists in 11 of those games. That includes reaching that threshold in difficult matchups against the Thunder, Rockets, Clippers and Suns. When these teams played each other in November, Jones finished with 20 points and seven assists. This line has been set too low, so give me the over.

The Spurs have a great matchup against the Bulls, who play at the third-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. Along the way, they have given up the third-most assists per game. Stephon Castle already comes into this matchup playing well, averaging 18.7 points and 8.4 assists over his last nine games. Another stat I like is that he is shooting 50.2% from the field at home, versus 44.6% on the road. It's going to be difficult for the Bulls to slow him down.

Amen Thompson has averaged 9.8 rebounds over his last nine games. During that span, he grabbed at least eight rebounds seven times. In one of the games that he didn't, he just missed with seven boards. A key to his gaudy rebounding stats is that he played 39 minutes a night during that span. The last time he faced the Knicks, he grabbed 10 rebounds over 40 minutes. With the expectation that he plays a lot again Tuesday, the over is the way to go here.

Luka Doncic was suspended for Monday's game against the Wizards after receiving his 16th technical foul of the season. Before the suspension, he averaged 39.7 points over his previous 12 games. He averaged a whopping 27.3 shot attempts and 9.6 free throw attempts during that span. The Cavaliers have struggled on the defensive end since acquiring James Harden, including ranking 20th in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games. This is a big number, but I still like the over.

Despite being moved back to the bench, Reed Sheppard made four three-pointers over 28 minutes against the Knicks on Tuesday. The game was played in Houston, which is important to note. For the season, Sheppard has shot 42.0% from behind the arc at home. Not only is he playing at home again, but this is a great matchup for him to stay hot because the Bucks allow the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. When he played them in Milwaukee earlier in the season, Sheppard made four threes. I like him to make at least three of them in this rematch.

With the Jazz tanking, Cody Williams has averaged 33 minutes over his last nine games. In seven of those games, he scored at least 15 points. In five of them, he scored at least 20 points. That included a 24-point performance against the Nuggets just last week. The Jazz play at the second-fastest pace in the league and the Nuggets rank 21st in defensive rating. I expect Williams to play at least 30 minutes again, putting him in a favorable position to reach this over.

Stephon Castle produced 15 points and 11 assists against the Warriors on Wednesday. Despite this being the second game of a back-to-back set, Castle should play his normal allotment of minutes with the Spurs trying to catch the Thunder for the top seed in the West. I'm surprised this line has been set so low, given that Castle has combined for at least 23 points and assists in 10 of his last 11 games. One of those games was against the Clippers when he had 23 points and eight assists. I'll bite and take the over on this combined prop.

After being limited in his first couple of games back from injury, Darius Garland has been locked in offensively. Over his last 12 games, he has shot 50.5% from the field and 51.5% from behind the arc. During that stretch, he scored at least 20 points in a game nine times. That included a matchup with the Spurs in which he had 25 points over 32 minutes. Both of these teams are jockeying for playoff positioning, so in what I think will be a competitive matchup, I like Garland to hit this over.

Jalen Brunson has been removed from the injury report after sitting out the second game of a back-to-back set Wednesday. Prior to that absence, he had scored at least 26 points in seven of his last 10 games. This game will be played in New York, where the star guard averages 27.3 points per game. It's also a great matchup against the Bulls, who play at the third-fastest pace. The last time he faced them in New York, Brunson scored 31 points. There is blowout potential here, but I still think Brunson can score at least 26 points.

Immanuel Quickley (foot) remains out for the Raptors. Scottie Barnes is an excellent passer and has been tasked with more play-making responsibilities with Quickley out. In each of the last six games without him, Barnes posted at least 10 assists. In four of the games, he dished out at least 12 dimes. The Grizzlies allow the sixth-most assists per game in the league, leaving Barnes in a favorable position to hit this over.

Norman Powell (illness) will miss his fourth straight game for the Heat. Over the last three games without him, Jaime Jaquez Jr. averaged 8.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists. Helping his cause was that he played 29 minutes a night. The Heat and Wizards both rank inside the top six in the league in pace of play, while the Wizards allow the most rebounds per game and the second-most assists per game. With around 30 minutes potentially coming his way, I like Jaquez to hit this over.

The Pacers will be very shorthanded Sunday. They have already ruled out Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith. The Cavaliers will be without two of their best defensive players in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Dean Wade, Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson also won’t play. Brown has already scored at least 12 points in three straight games. He should play around 30 minutes in this game, making the over the way to go.

After sitting out Sunday, Sam Merrill, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen will return for the Cavaliers on Monday. However, James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade and Max Strus will all get the night off. Merrill should receive additional minutes and shot attempts against a Grizzlies team that has the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Merrill shoots 42.1% from behind the arc, so this is a favorable spot for him to score at least 15 points.

Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels will not play against the Pacers. With Edwards in and out of the lineup lately, and McDaniels being listed as week-to-week, Ayo Dosunmu has scored at least 17 points in eight of his last nine games. This is a great matchup for him to remain hot in the scoring department with the tanking Pacers having the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Over the last 10 games, the Pacers and Timberwolves both rank inside the top 10 in pace of play. Take this over.

Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis are both out again for the Bulls. Leonard Miller started with them sidelined Sunday against the Suns and produced 17 points and 10 rebounds across 33 minutes. The Suns rank 10th in defensive rating, so it wasn’t exactly an easy matchup. This one will be against the Wizards, who have the worst defensive rating and allow the most rebound per game. Miller should at least play 30 minutes, making this over appealing.

Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III have been ruled out of this game for the Pelicans. With those two also out Sunday against the Magic, Saddiq Bey scored 32 points in 39 minutes. This is an even better matchup against the Jazz, who have the second-worst defensive rating and play at the second-fastest pace in the league. In two previous meetings with them, Bey scored 42 and 24 points. Don’t expect them to slow him down Tuesday.

De’Aaron Fox has been quiet lately, averaging only 13.4 points over his last eight games. During that stretch, he averaged just 28 minutes and 12.1 shot attempts. Expect both of those numbers to increase dramatically Wednesday with Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle both out for the Spurs. Over the last four games without Wembanyama, Fox scored 22, 27, 19 and 24 points, and that was with Castle playing in each of them. This is a great spot for Fox to thrive in the scoring column.

Brandon Ingram only played 29 minutes with the Raptors blowing out the Heat on Tuesday. Still, he scored 23 points on 9-for-16 shooting from the field. The Heat play at the fastest pace in the league, which should afford Ingram with plenty of scoring opportunities again Thursday. Another stat working in Ingram’s favor is that he averages 23.0 points per game and shoots 49.3% from the field at home. I think this game is closer than Tuesday’s matchup as both teams fight for playoff seeding, so take this over for Ingram.

The Cavaliers have ruled out Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Sam Merrill for Friday. The absences of Mitchell and Allen should benefit Evan Mobley, leaving him with more shot attempts and rebounding opportunities. Even with them on the floor against the Hawks on Wednesday, Mobley finished with 22 points and 19 rebounds. The Hawks play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league and allow the ninth-most rebounds per game, so look for Mobley to have a productive evening in both departments.

This is the second game of a back-to-back set for the Celtics. Baylor Scheierman played 30 minutes against the Knicks on Thursday, posting 20 points and four rebounds. Jaylen Brown was out, and while he could return Friday, Jayson Tatum will likely get the night off for rest. The Celtics could also rest other key starters with the Pelicans playing without most of their normal starting five. Scheierman could play around 30 minutes again at home, where he shoots 49.3% from the field and 41.7% from three. What also makes this over appealing is that the Pelicans allow the sixth-most rebounds per game in the league.

Jaylen Wells was held to eight points vs. the Clippers last time out. In his previous three games, he scored 24, 19 and 18 points. This is a terrific matchup against a Nets team that ranks Bottom-2 in field-goal percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. Wells also has been a more efficient scorer on the road.

The Jazz own the NBA's worst defensive rating. It's a terrific matchup for Golden State and specifically Draymond Green's role as a facilitator. He is averaging 6.3 assists this month and has cleared this prop total in six of his last nine games. On Jan. 28 in Salt Lake City, Green dished out six assists in 23 minutes of the Warriors' 140-124 win over the Jazz. Green has played 30-plus minutes in six of his last nine games. Kristaps Porzingis and Steph Curry are among the sidelined Warriors Monday, which should lead to a high usage game from Green.

Alperen Sengun has had two monster games and two quieter games this month. This looks like a bigger game given he's facing a Raptors team that might not have Jakob Poetl (questionable, illness) and definitely will be without Collin Murray-Boyles. This is the first game of a road back-to-back for Toronto. Sengun has been a better rebounder at home this season, averaging 9.8.

LaMelo Ball has gone Under this prop total in four straight, but this is a tremendous matchup. The Kings own the NBA's worst defensive rating over the past 10 games. It's the second night of a back-to-back, but Ball only played 22 minutes at Portland on Tuesday. I would play this Over 7.5 at plus money.

Suns guard Jalen Green is making up for lost time after missing 48 games this season, mainly due to a hamstring injury. He has played 30-plus minutes in each game this month, averaging 21.2 points. Against the injury-plagued Pacers, I bet Green to keep it going and score at least 21.

Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox has scored 19-plus points in four straight games, and he has shot 50 percent or better in five straight. On Thursday he faces a visiting Nuggets team playing the second night of a back-to-back. The game total is 238.5, tied for highest on the board. Go Over.

Cavs star Donovan Mitchell has recorded five or more rebounds in four of his last five games. Dallas gives up the third-most rebounds per game (55.5), and center Daniel Gafford is doubtful on the second night of a back-to-back. With the Cavs coming off a loss, look for a big all-around game from Mitchell that includes at least five boards.

Dejounte Murray missed most of the season recovering from an Achilles injury. He has played seven games now and is coming off a season-high 31 minutes. Murray has cleared this prop total in three of his last six games. With his minutes increasing and with the Pelicans playing at the NBA's fifth-fastest pace over the past 10 games, Murray has a great chance to record six-plus assists.

Darius Garland was rested on the first night of a back-to-back Friday. He should be all-systems-go for Saturday's home game against the lowly Kings, who rank third-worst in defensive rating. Garland has scored 20-plus points in three straight games and six of the past eight. Go Over.

In this same matchup Friday in Dallas, Evan Mobley scored 29 points on 12-of-15 shooting. Jarrett Allen remains out, so Mobley should be the primary interior scorer. Mavs center Daniel Gafford is doubtful after resting Friday. It all sets up for another big game for Mobley, who has averaged 20.6 points over his last seven.

Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.1 points and 13 rebounds this month. He's facing a Warriors team missing Draymond Green, Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis among others. Center Quinten Post (ankle) is questionable. This prop bet could fall victim to a blowout, but I like KAT to clear this number even if his minutes land in the high 20s rather than the 30s.

Jazz forward Cody Williams has played 36-plus minutes in five straight games. This is a great matchup against the Kings, who rank 28th in defensive rating. Look for another heavy workload as Williams goes Over.

Both teams are red-hot. The Hawks have won nine in a row and boast a plus 12.8 net rating over their last 12 games (1-1). They won and covered each of the early-season meetings with Orlando. While the Magic have won seven straight, they likely will struggle to be efficient against Atlanta's versatile defenders. Back the surging Hawks to improve to 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

Jerami Grant is averaging 32 minutes this month. He's scoring 18.4 points per game on 51.2 percent shooting. He has cleared this prop total in nine of his last 11 games. On Monday, he faces a tanking Nets team in a game Portland wants to win. The Blazers sit a half-game back of Golden State for the West's No. 9 seed, 2.5 games back of the Clippers for the No. 8 seed. Look for Grant to score 20-plus points.

Kawhi Leonard rolled his ankle last time out and is doubtful. The Spurs enter on a 17-2 SU heater. In that span they have covered all but five times. Two of the non-covers were losses to the Nuggets and Knicks. Another was a 17-point win over Sacramento when San Antonio was laying 18.5. And another was a 116-112 home win over the Clippers, in which San Antonio erased a 25-point, second-half deficit. Leonard scored 30 in that defeat. The Spurs own the third-best ATS margin on the road (plus 4.0), behind only Charlotte and Boston.

Paolo Banchero has cleared this prop total in four straight and in nine of his last 11 games. While this is the second night of a back-to-back, Banchero played a below-average 33 minutes Monday in Atlanta. Over the past three games, OKC is giving up 60.3 rebounds per game (2nd-most). I would also play this Over 8.5 at plus money.

James Harden and the rest of the Cavs were terrible in a home loss to Dallas on Sunday, the veteran finishing with 13 points and seven assists. This should be a huge bounceback game for Harden and Cleveland's offense. Milwaukee has allowed 122-plus points in four of its last five games and owns the NBA's fifth-worst defensive rating. The Bucks give up the 8th-most points and 4th-most assists to opposing point guards.

Without Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, Joel Embiid and Kelly Oubre, the 76ers are relying heavily on Quentin Grimes. He's taken 22 shots each of the past two games and has cleared this prop total in four of his last six. Expect another 35-plus minutes from Grimes in a game with a total of 236.5.

Dyson Daniels does it all for the surging Hawks. He has cleared this prop total in seven of his last nine games. On March 10 at home vs. Dallas, Daniels posted 14 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds in 36 minutes. This month he's averaging 26.7 points-assists-rebounds despite playing under 30 minutes twice. Look for another big game for Daniels in a great matchup.

Russell Westbrook grabbed 30 rebounds over a three-game stretch until collecting only one board Tuesday against the Spurs. He should get back on track Thursday; the depleted 76ers are allowing a league-high 57.7 rebounds per game over their last three outings. I love taking a shot at six rebounds at plus money.

Quentin Grimes played just 26 minutes in Tuesday's blowout loss at Denver, scoring 12 points. Look for him to get back to his productive ways Thursday at Sacramento. This figures to be a tight game, so I'm expecting Grimes to play about 35 minutes. Philly remains without Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre and Paul George, with Joel Embiid listed as doubtful. The Kings own the third-worst defensive rating. Look for Grimes to be aggressive from the field and in getting to the foul line.

Toronto’s Immanuel Quickley put up 22 points and four assists in his earlier matchup with Denver this season. And he didn’t shoot well. This should be a high-scoring, competitive game. Look for Quickley to play about 35 minutes and clear this prop total.

Jalen Green is coming off two down games, but this is a tremendous matchup at home vs. Milwaukee. When Green faced the Bucks in Milwaukee on March 10, he scored 25 points on 10-of-20 shooting. The Suns have a couple key absences Saturday night, so Green should get plenty of opportunities to duplicate that performance.

Deni Avdija has just 15 assists over the past three games. But the way the Nuggets defend Avdija makes him more likely to have a big game as a distributor. That's exactly what happened on Feb. 20 when Avdija had 13 assists in 30 minutes vs. Denver. We have a total of 238.5, indicating a lot of points will be scored. Back Avdija to go Over on assists.

Wizards guard Bub Carrington has played 33-plus minutes in three straight games, scoring 59 total points. Those games came against OKC and Detroit (twice). On Feb. 3, Carrington scored 14 points in 25 minutes versus New York. Look for the Knicks to win in a blowout but Carrington to score at least 11 points Sunday night.

The Pacers own the fifth-worst defensive rating and give up the second-most rebounds per game (56.2). Paolo Banchero has faced Indiana twice this season, putting up 29 points and 10 rebounds and then 28 and 12. Indiana's Ivica Zubac is out for the season, and the Pacers started Pascal Siakam at center last time out.

Alperen Sengun has a great matchup in Chicago, as the Bulls lack rim protectors who can stop him. He scored 23 points in the earlier meeting with the Bulls. Chicago also plays at the fourth-fastest pace and has allowed 124.5 points per game over its last seven outings. Sengun did not clear this prop line in four of his last five games, but this is a terrific matchup.

Paolo Banchero took 27 shots and scored 39 points in Monday's heartbreaking loss to Indiana. He also finished with six assists as Jalen Suggs didn't play. Suggs is out again. Banchero won't get the same easy looks he got vs. Indiana, so I expect him to set up his teammates even more.

Dyson Daniels has faced the Pistons three times, putting up 27, 20, and 33 combined points, assists and rebounds. He's coming off a blowout win in which he played just 24 minutes. This game is expected to be tight, suggesting Daniels will play 30-plus minutes. Jalen Johnson (left shoulder inflammation) is questionable. I expect Johnson to play in this big matchup in Detroit, but if he doesn't then Daniels' usage certainly would go up.

We have a total of 245.5 for Mavericks-Nuggets, and Aaron Gordon is out. While Peyton Watson returns, this is still a great spot for Christian Braun. He's cleared this prop total in six of his last eight games, the two misses coming by a half-point. He has shot over 50 percent in six straight games. Look for at least 12 points from Braun on Wednesday.

The Knicks have won seven straight, but all have come against inferior competition. This is a big step up against a Charlotte team that's on a 22-6 heater. Over the past 15 games, Charlotte owns the NBA's No. 1 offensive rating. Coby White has provided a nice spark off the bench since being acquired from the Bulls, giving the Hornets five dangerous 3-point shooters. They usually have four on the court at once. The Knicks blew out Charlotte in late November and early December, but this is a different Hornets' team now.

The Magic are desperate to end their six-game skid, and they couldn't have picked a better opponent. The Kings have allowed 122-plus points in four straight games and, for the season, they give up the fifth-most points in the paint. It sets up well for another big game from Paolo Banchero. He has scored 75 points in the past two games, and he tallied 30 in his lone previous meeting with Sacramento this season. With Anthony Black and Franz Wagner still out and Jalen Suggs questionable with an illness, look for Banchero to carry the load yet again.

Cooper Flagg has cleared this prop total in three straight games and five of his last six overall. He also cleared it in both previous matchups with Portland this season. Look for Flagg to continue filling up the box score Friday night. I would also play this Over 13.5 at close to even money.

Kyle Filipowski is averaging 8.8 rebounds in March, and on Saturday night he'll start at center versus a Suns team starting Oso Ighodaro at center. Filipowski has cleared this prop total in eight of 12 games this month. Last time out, Phoenix gave up a whopping 60 rebounds.

Aaron Gordon is out, weakning an already suspect Denver defense. We have a total of 237.5 for this matchup. At this stage of his career, Draymond Green is primarily a defensive anchor as well as a facilitator. He had 10 assists last time out vs. Washington. Look for Green to dish out at least six assists for the eighth time in 13 games this month.

The Hawks have won 12 straight home games, and they have a clean injury report entering Monday's showdown with Boston. It's a quick revenge spot for Atlanta, which fell 109-102 in Boston on Friday. The Celtics won in Charlotte on Sunday without Jaylen Brown or Derrick White, while the Hawks rested. Jayson Tatum poured in 32 points on 12-of-23 shooting, adding eight assists. It's unclear if Tatum will play on the second night of a back-to-back, and whether Brown and White will return; the Celtics' injury report has not been released. Either way, I like the young Hawks to stay hot at home.

Phoenix is playing the second night of a back-to-back but the Suns are getting reinforcements while the Magic look discombobulated. Orlando has lost seven of eight after getting embarrassed by Toronto. This should be a pick-em so I took the points.

Jarrett Allen played 18 minutes in his first game back from a 10-game absence due to knee tendinitis, racking up 18 points and 10 rebounds against the Heat. He should see 20-25 minutes in Tuesday's showdown with the Lakers after sitting out Monday's game. He has cleared this prop total in 15 of his last 16 games. Even with a few fewer minutes, I love Allen to thrive in this matchup after resting since Friday.

Jayson Tatum has grabbed nine-plus rebounds in five of his last six games. He's averaging 9.1 rebounds since his return a little less than a month ago. Tatum was rested on Monday, so he enters this matchup at Miami having not played since Sunday. The Heat play at the NBA's fastest pace and give up the fourth-most rebounds per game (55.1). Look for Tatum to be a force on the boards.

Brandon Ingram is shooting 41.9 percent from deep since the All-Star Break. He's faced the Celtics twice this season, going 4 of 7 and 3 of 7 from beyond the arc. Boston has given up an average of 20 3-pointers over its last three games. For the season, the Celtics have given up the fifth-most 3-pointers (14.1 per game). Look for Ingram to make at least two treys Sunday.

The Jazz are expected to get blown out at OKC, but that should not affect Kyle Filipowski’s minutes. He has played 24 to 31 minutes in the past five games, clearing this prop total each time. A Thunder massacre could work to our advantage with Filipowski facing mostly reserves in the second half.

Atlanta has won 13 straight home games and is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games overall, with 16 of those wins by double digits. The Knicks have lost their last five games to teams above .500, and New York is just 21-19 SU on the road. Both teams are healthy. But the Hawks arguably have more to play for as they try to avoid the play-in tournament. You could argue the Knicks, currently the No. 3 seed, would benefit from dropping to the fourth seed so they could avoid Boston in the conference semis. Not that New York won't go all-out, but we've already heard Mike Brown say he wants to keep some wrinkles hidden from potential playoff opponents. Red-hot Atlanta is among them.

Jarrett Allen has been highly efficient in three games since returning from injury. He’s had plenty of rest in advance of this plus-matchup with the depleted Grizzlies. And his minutes have steadily increased. Back Allen for at least 24 points and rebounds.

Jayson Tatum has scored 23-plus points in five straight games, including a 32-point outburst at Charlotte on March 29. Boston is close to clinching the No. 2 seed so the motivation is there for the Celtics to go all-out. This profiles as a competitive game, so we should get 30-35 minutes from Tatum.

Paolo Banchero has cleared this prop total just once in the past five games. But this is a terrific matchup against the short-handed Bulls, who play at a fast pace. Banchero should play a ton of minutes with Orlando just one game out of the No. 6 seed. I like Banchero to grab at least nine boards at plus money.

With Portland vying for the No. 8 seed and currently sitting one game behind the Clippers, expect another huge workload for Deni Avdija. He has played 37, 40 and 38 minutes this month. Avdija has faced the Clippers three times this season, racking up seven, nine and 11 boards. The 11-rebound performance came March 31 in LA. Look for Avdija to grab seven-plus rebounds for the fifth time in his last seven games.

Memphis has listed several players doubtful for tonight’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. That makes an already thin roster dependent more so on backups against a Brooklyn team coming off a comeback win over the Detroit Pistons. The first matchup was also the fewest point scored in a Memphis game this season a 103 to 98 matchup. Take Brooklyn.

One of the coldest teams ATS have been the Houston Rockets. They have not covered in five straight games, and are coming off giving up 145 points to the San Antonio Spurs. That was a season high in points allowed for the Rockets, and also their third game in four days. Off a day off look for a refocused Rockets team against Toronto. Lay the number.

The Orlando Magic have won four straight games, and are off back to back wins of twenty points or more for the first time this season. Yet, they find themselves as a home underdog against a Cavaliers team that defeated them by fourteen and sixteen points in late January. With Cleveland just .500 over their last eight games this figures to be a closer game, but take the Cavs to outlast the Magic and go three for three ATS against Orlando.

The Minnesota Timberwolves hit a low point two games ago when they matched a season worst twenty seven point loss against Orlando. The offense was not there once again in last night’s loss to the Lakers where they had Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVencenzo, and Anthony Edwards struggle from the field. Even if tonight’s another struggling game offensively, the Timberwolves showed just two weeks ago they can overcome that. They defeated the Clippers 94 to 88. Grab the Twolves as the underdog in a back to back spot.

The Toronto Raptors have lost four of their last five games, including consecutive games by double digits. Tonight they will face a Phoenix Suns team that is in a back to back spot after yesterday’s victory over the Indiana Pacers. Devin Booker has been on a tear with five straight games of 27 or more points, but his only game of the last five years scoring in single digits without leaving because of injury was at Toronto. He scored just 8 points in 33 minutes. Tail the Raptors in a bounce back spot.

The Miami Heat have rode not just a seven game winning streak, but have covered each game as well. Another hot team lies atop the Southeast division with the Orlando Magic on a six game winning streak, and have already beat the Heat four times this year. They may not get a fifth win but look for the spread to be precise on a two point line move on the Heat side with Norman Powell back. Grab the points with Orlando.

The LA Lakers have won seven out of their last eight games. The only loss during that stretch was against tonight’s opponent in the Denver Nuggets. A game that saw a big line move on the Lakers side from 5.5 to 3.5 but failed ATS. Teams are typically vulnerable on the back end of a long home stand. Look for that scenario tonight as the Lakers are playing their fifth straight home game. Tail Denver.

The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic have the two best win streaks in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has won nine straight games overall, where they have covered in each victory. They’ve also had an advantageous home schedule as this is their tenth home game out of their last eleven. Look for Orlando to keep this close as they look to avoid going 0 and 3 on the year to Atlanta. Grab the points.

The Toronto Raptors won both of their latest matchups at home over the Phoenix Suns, and Detroit Pistons. Now they will try and correct their issues on the road which has resulted in three straight losses and failures ATS. Chicago has been a team they have had strong results against with a sixteen point and nine point win this season. Lay the number with the Raptors.

The Lakers are surging with seven straight wins, and victories in ten out of eleven games. It’s been a whirlwind week with games against Denver and consecutive road games against the Houston Rockets. Today, could be a spot where the Lakers value the long term health for the playoffs, rather then play their key players. Even if Luka and company are cleared, back the Heat who will be motivated off a thirty point loss to the Hornets.

For the second straight night the Pelicans are favored over the LA Clippers. They erased a 40 to 26 first quarter deficit to beat the Clippers by 15 points. Over the Clippers last two games they have blown big leads in the first quarter against the Spurs and Pelicans, which is maybe a sign of team fatigue. Back below .500 grab the Pelicans to take advantage for a second straight night.

A team that Desmond Bane is familiar with is the Los Angeles Lakers, from being in the Western Conference with the Memphis Grizzlies. He scored 22 points against them in the first matchup this year for Orlando. The Lakers may be on an eight game win streak, but they did struggle defensively in their prior game against Miami. Look for Bane to take advantage with Anthony Black out of the lineup. Play his over.

The Pelicans have one of the more crowded lineups to evaluate for props since DeJounte Murray's return. With Murray the Pelicans have three starters averaging over 20 points per game. The fourth leading scorer is Bey who quietly has exceeded his points prop in seven out of the last nine games. Ride his consistency once again against the Cavaliers.

The Houston Rockets ended the Atlanta Hawks double digit win streak in lopsided fashion yesterday winning 117-95. They still have one of the stronger home records in the NBA at 24-10, but they've shown to be vulnerable as of late. Grab the Heat in a flat spot as the Rockets play their fifth straight home game. They also lost to the Heat by ten points in late February.

Portland has won three straight games, but did so against two bottom level teams in Indiana and Brooklyn. The other win was against a Timberwolves team playing without Anthony Edwards. Not expecting an outright win today against the Denver Nuggets, but do look for a better overall effort then February 20th’s result of 157 to 103. Take Portland on the big spread.

The LA Lakers continue their road trip by traveling up to face the Detroit Pistons. Detroit without Cade Cunningham is rightfully a home underdog, but their depth has advanced to continue to back on their home floor. This marks the Lakers fifth straight road game, and third straight against an Eastern Conference opponent. Each of their last two games they were in trouble for stretches against Orlando and the Miami Heat. Back Detroit.

I’m expecting the Cleveland Cavaliers to get back on track from a scoring stand point tonight. Over their last three games they have had a points reduction from 123, 115, and 111 points scored. Tonight’s a favorable matchup facing the Orlando Magic who on March 11th, both teams combined for 250 points. Orlando had all five starters score in double figures, including Desmond Bane who led all scorers with 35.

Jalen Green is finally healthy in his first season with the Phoenix Suns. He had lingering issues that kept him out of the lineup, but March is shaping up to be his first healthy month for Phoenix. He was at a different speed from everyone else on the court in Sunday’s 22 point win over Toronto, which was a back to back spot for Phoenix. Green has also flourished in his career against Denver, where he has scored 25 or more points in five out of his last six matchups against the Nuggets. Take his points over.

The Chicago Bulls have covered three out of their last four games, and our coming off one of the biggest surprises of the week. They took down the Houston Rockets as a nine point home underdog their last time out. I’ll fade them on the road tonight against a Philadelphia 76ers team that has quietly gained strength with the growth of their reserve starters. Justin Edwards is one of many 76ers players that has shined with roster injuries. Tail Philadelphia as the home favorite.

Denver got away with a sloppy performance win last night against the Phoenix Suns. As part of the NBC double header they were in an abnormal late time slot, that I expect to impact them tonight after traveling in from Phoenix. Denver has also scored over 121 points in eight out of their last nine games. This is a healthier Mavericks team this time around, which we saw in the first two matchups against Denver result in 252 and 261 points. Take the over.

As we get closer to the conclusion of the NBA regular season, there are marquee games that you can circle as playoff level matchups. We have that today with the Knicks traveling to face the Charlotte Hornets. New York has been stout defensively in their last eight road games against Eastern Conference teams, where they have kept six opponents under 100 points including the Boston Celtics. Look for that key one quarter of low scoring to get the under to cash.

The LA Lakers return home after a six game road trip. They had their down moments offensively in two out of their last three games, with 105 points against Orlando and 110 against Detroit. This should be a spot where the Lakers do not have to go all out to get a win, and would not be surprised to see Luka Doncic sit this one out. Looking for a 115 to 99 type of win for the Lakers. Tail the under.

It's been a wild month of March for the Orlando Magic who had a seven game win streak, and followed it up with a six game losing streak. Ending that losing streak by beating the lowly Sacramento Kings by just four points only helps our case to back today. The Magic are 2-0 ATS against the Raptors this season, including outscoring them 44 to 21 in the fourth quarter of the matchup on January 30th. Grab the Magic plus the points.

A player that continues to grow is Amen Thompson of the Houston Rockets. He has been on a terror in the rebounds prop market, and came close to a triple double two games ago against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He is one of those rare players that wants to be on the floor as much as possible, and that is evident in him playing 40 or more minutes in five out of the last eight games. Just two weeks ago he put in 23 points and 12 rebounds against the Pelicans, and I expect his best upside to be in the points category tonight. Tail his points over.

A returning star player usually means the rest of the roster is going to have an impact with less scoring. I look for the opposite with Timberwolves player Naz Reid. Reid is accustomed to his role with Edwards, and without him on the court has struggled. He has went under today's point prop offering in 13 out of his last 14 games. After shooting just 3 of 15 against Detroit Saturday, take Reid to finally end his slump.

Yesterday was a flat spot for the Dallas Mavericks at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves were energized with the return of Anthony Edwards, and blew out the Mavericks by thirty points. Prior to that loss the Mavericks were competitive in four straight games. They lost two games in overtime, covered against Denver, and beat Portland as a double digit underdog. Tail Dallas as the slight road favorite.

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and LA Lakers are in back to back spots. For the Lakers they did rest Luka Doncic in yesterday's win over the Washington Wizards. I also expect the Lakers to be motivated seeing a Cavaliers team that trounced them in January 129 to 99. The extra energy for the Lakers should be there as they had one of the easiest schedules over the last week, in which they faced Indiana, Brooklyn, and Washington. Since December the Lakers are also 5 and 1 to the over on the second night of back to backs. Take the over.

Tonight, we have seen one of the biggest spread moves without a player injury involved as the point spread has dropped from Atlanta -5. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Orlando has not lost all four games in one year to the Hawks since 2012-2013. Banchero on the season has shot just 29.5 percent in three games against Atlanta. Expect him to be aggressive from the start, as he has had success drawing fouls against the Hawks. He clears his points prop for the first time this season against Atlanta.

The Sacramento Kings are an organization that on a nightly basis you don't know which personnel is going to be on the court. It's been a horrific road trip of four straight losses, and they are now 6-32 on the year on the road. After just 99 points against a Brooklyn team that had lost ten straight, I'm looking for a more efficient game from Sacramento. DeMar DeRozan is back in the lineup, and Toronto should be fueled off a poor showing yesterday against the Pistons. This also concludes the Kings last main road trip of the season, as their final two road games are single games against the Warriors and Portland. Take the over.

A sharp total lies with tonight's matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Charlotte Hornets. I'm looking for the same scenario that caused the Hornets to have a scoring dip, in the prior matchup against the Suns to impact Phoenix this time. Charlotte was on a West Coast road trip when they had a flat performance and scored just 99 points. Now it's the Suns in that spot, who beat the Hornets by simply living at the free throw line with thirteen more made free throws. Tight game with more scoring, but we get the under to cash.

The LA Lakers are 16-2 over their last 18 games, but find themselves as steep underdogs against OKC. In both games on the season OKC defeated the Lakers in lopsided fashion. See this as a spot where Kennard will be getting extra minutes in the fourth with the game out of hand. Play his points prop over

While Portland has enjoyed a great stretch of basketball, a player that has been impacted by that is Donovan Clingan. He has scored six points or less in three straight games, and single digits in four of five. Look for an expanded role from Clingan tonight against a Pelicans team that has struggled defensively as of late.

I’m looking for the Pistons to continue to be an ATS devalued team minus Cade Cunningham. They have won eight out of their last ten games, with the only two losses being in overtime against the Thunder and the Atlanta Hawks. Philadelphia won’t have Joel Embiid in the lineup, and were a bit flat on the offensive end of the floor last night against the Timberwolves. Take the Pistons.

The no one wants to win game will take place between the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets. Washington in consecutive games has given up 153 and 152 points, this includes yesterday against the Miami Heat. Still, the value to continue losing for the Wizards being a game back of Brooklyn is a value indicator to back. The Wizards override their poor defense with their scoring ability and cover the spread.

The last week of the regular season is a haven for reserves to go off in the scoring department. Ja’Kobe Walter’s prop is two points higher than his season average today, despite going under this prop in three straight games. He is getting the minutes, and I expect an uptick back to where he was at the mid-point and tail end of March. Additionally, the only game this season he was the leading scorer for the Raptors was against the Celtics when he scored 19 points. Back Walter’s over.

The Indiana Pacers are choosing to sit four out of their five starters, which means extra opportunities for reserve Quenton Jackson. Jackson has taken advantage over the past two games where he has scored 15 and 16 points. Since February, when he has played 22 minutes or more he is averaging sixteen points per game. Tail Jackson’s over as he continues to fly under the radar in the prop market.

The Washington Wizards showed their true hand on Sunday, in a position to win with under four minutes left against Brooklyn. After a timeout, they let off the gas and a 105 to 101 lead turned into an eight point deficit in less then two minutes. Although the Bulls have the worst losing streak in the Eastern Conference at seven games, they get what may be their final win of the season tonight going away. Lay the number.

In both meetings between the Charlotte Hornets and Boston Celtics the road team has won. That angle could be disrupted tonight, but I’m siding with the underdog to cover. Charlotte’s only game below 100 points in their last fourteen games was a 114 to 99 home loss against the Celtics. A side note is both matchups Charlotte was playing the second night of a back to back spot. This is the first time they will be on rest. Take the Hornets plus the points.

Late add on the Orlando Magic in one of those wild end of season one-game specific scenarios we tend to get to close out the NBA season. The Minnesota Timberwolves are choosing to rest several starters, which has put them as an unknown in the betting market. I also expect a minutes cap on players like Donte DiVencenzo and Naz Reid. Grab Orlando who is on the upswing with three straight wins and also gets Anthony Black back in the lineup.

The San Antonio Spurs have ruled out both Wemby and Stephon Castle for tonight’s matchup against Portland. Portland’s latest outing was an overtime loss, but against a team in Denver that has the current best win streak in the NBA at nine games. We also have seen this Spurs lineup without Wemby against Portland. This occurred on January 3rd, when Portland handed San Antonio one of their seven home losses on the season. Grab the Trailblazers plus the points.

The New York Knicks have had the upper hand recently over the Boston Celtics. They won in six games in last year’s conference semi-finals, and have won two out of three in the regular season this year. Both wins were by double digits including handing the Celtics their second worst home loss of the season by twenty two points. An outlier tonight is Jayson Tatum returning to Madison Square Garden for the first time since his achilles injury in game four of last season. That could have a slight impact on his game, but look for the Knicks to take the regular season series 3 games to 1 and cover the spread.

The Brooklyn Nets have surprisingly won consecutive games, and three out of their last five overall. Tonight will mark their sixth straight home game, which I believe can lead to a bit of complacency in a spot against a Pacers team with a worse record overall. Brooklyn has won just three games in a row once this season, and I’ve been impressed with the younger players getting action for the Pacers in Jalen Slawson, Ethan Thompson, and others. Back the Pacers as the road favorite.

A game that will likely have the lowest handle of today’s slate is Memphis against the Utah Jazz. Utah is a favorite despite losing ten straight games. Just in their last five losses the opposition has increased their scoring each time, with the Pelicans finishing with 156 points Tuesday. In a game filled with reserves in starter roles take the Jazz to in what is their final home game of the season.

Third road game in four nights and second of a back-to-back for the Knicks, who have been in Los Angeles since Saturday. Jalen Brunson played 42 minutes in last night's loss to the Lakers, while OG Anunoby got 38 and Karl-Anthony Towns 34. New York is 13-19 ATS away. The Clippers are on normal rest and have the huge carrot of getting to .500 for the first time since Nov. 3. Darius Garland looks better by the game with L.A. His team is 6-3 ATS as a home dog.

This should be a fun game Tuesday and a possible NBA Finals preview with Jayson Tatum now back for Boston. He has been limited to 27 minutes in his first two and that's not likely changing tonight. The C's are thinned out with Payton Pritchard and Nikola Vucevic both out. Vucevic's big body/six fouls would have been helpful against Victor Wembanyama tonight. The Spurs have won 15 of 16 and largely are trucking people. San Antonio is 21-0 when shooting at least 40.0% from beyond the arc this season. The only other such unbeaten team? Boston at 19-0. Pritchard and Vucevic are both pretty good from deep so they will be missed.

The Pacers certainly don't care, but the Suns are still pretty short-handed and have a tougher game Friday in Toronto. It will be the Indiana debut of trade acquisition Ivica Zubac, not that I expect him to play more than 20 minutes or so. Indiana is 14-11 ATS as a home dog. Something like 113-106 works, but our model has Phoenix only by three.

Philly's Dom Barlow might be the only rebounder the team has left tonight with Joel Embiid, Adem Bona and (likely) Andre Drummond all out. That would leave Barlow as the only Sixers guy taller than 6-foot-8 available. He averages right at this number in usually fairly limited minutes. Didn't expect to do a "Dom" prop today. No, Fast & Furious is not on in the background: "It doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile; winning's winning" -- truth in betting.

The Heat are getting a few guys back tonight while apparently there is a bit of a bug going around the Magic locker room. Both clubs are playing really well but perhaps a bit more motivation for Miami to avoid an embarrassing five-game season sweep against a possible playoff foe. Five games because one in the NBA Cup.

Both teams are on fire, but we would excuse Orlando for perhaps looking ahead to Tuesday and one of its biggest home games of the season vs. Oklahoma City. The Hawks are 2-0 in this season series and will have everyone available with Jonathan Kuminga cleared to go. He had missed four of the past five but had looked good in limited action since the trade from Golden State. Still no Anthony Black or Franz Wagner for Orlando.

With Bam Adebayo in doubt, Kel'El Ware should see heavy minutes in Charlotte. Ware has four double-doubles over his last seven games and topped this number last time out vs. Orlando despite playing only 27 minutes. I'd think Ware gets closer to 33 tonight if Adebayo sits and Ware avoids foul trouble, etc.

No Anthony Edwards for the Wolves but fifth game of a six-game trip and second of a back-to-back for Phoenix. Devin Booker played 37 minutes in last night's loss in Boston, so he might have heavy legs. Grayson Allen (17.2 PPG) is out. Minnesota is 6-4 without Edwards this season and has everyone else available. It tries to avoid the season sweep for some added motivation -- and a Suns win would cut the Wolves' lead for the No. 6 seed in the West to just a game. Phoenix is 5-7 ATS with no rest.

The Thunder could win by 40 if they wanted but why? It's the second of a B2B after a tough game in Orlando on Tuesday, and Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein and (probably) Chet Holmgren will sit in Brooklyn. Just get up by 20 and get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and others out of there late third quarter. OKC is 1-8 ATS in its past nine. The Nets can win the battle of the backups late and cover.

So tough to sweep one of these baseball-type series on the road in the NBA even against a bad team, much less a good one like Houston. I touch on this in today's newsletter, but I expect a very motivated Kevin Durant tonight after he played terribly in Monday's home loss to the Lakers. The Rockets also didn't have second-leading scorer and All-Star center Alperen Sengun, and he's back tonight. L.A. is rolling but also the front of a back-to-back with LeBron maybe peeking ahead to a return to Miami on Thursday.

I did not expect Houston to be swept in a two-game home series by the Lakers on Wednesday, I will admit that completely. And maybe I'm a bit opaque on the Rockets for some reason, but they should not lose again at home to the Hawks even if Atlanta has won a league-best 11 in a row. Front of a B2B for the Hawks and no Jonathan Kuminga, who has been a tremendous trade pickup and a guy I wished the Bulls acquired. Nah, they just got a bunch of 2035 second-round picks.

Will the tanking Mavericks try at all is the main question because they are rested and pretty healthy. The Clippers have lost four straight, and it's the end of a three-game trip with Kawhi Leonard in question. With really not a ton to play for locked into the Play-In Tournament, I'd certainly just rest Kawhi if not close to 100% until get back home, but that's me. Trade acquisition Bennedict Mathurin is out again. He has been quite good since coming from Indiana, averaging 18.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Our model has L.A. by three and it projects Kawhi as playing.

Huge number for Wemby, who averages 22.7 points on the road this season and is about at that number via our model tonight in Miami. The Heat have two good bigs to help slow Wembanyama in Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware. In three of his past four, Wemby hasn't come close to at least 28 points. Also, Stephon Castle is back from a two-game injury absence and Castle certainly may siphon off a few shot attempts. Wembanyama scored 27 in 40 minutes in the first meeting. If he plays around 40 again, yeah, this probably loses.

End of a six-game trip for the Lakers on Wednesday, so they figure to be on fumes. They looked a bit tired in a close win last Saturday in Orlando and then very much so in Monday's loss in Detroit. Maybe LeBron James gets this one off after playing 39 minutes in Motown. Luka Doncic has played at least 38 minutes every game this trip. Hey, give him the night off, too. Marcus Smart is doubtful and Rui Hachimura iffy. Looks like the Pacers might try for one game with pretty much everyone who isn't done for the year expected to play in obviously one of the marquee home games of the season. Indiana has covered three straight.

New Orleans has been playing pretty good basketball in recent weeks with no reason to tank and Dejounte Murray back. The Pels haven't lost a game by more than five since March 3. This is mostly a fade of the Pistons, though, even though they are atop the East. They played a wild OT game last night vs. Atlanta with Jalen Duren getting 42 minutes and Daniss Jenkins 45 -- he's starting because Cade Cunningham is still out injured. Being as it's also a third game in four nights, I could see Duren taking a seat, and backup center Isaiah Stewart is still out injured.

We won taking Indiana at home plus a bunch of points vs. the other L.A. team on Wednesday. In their past five roadies, the Clippers nearly and should have lost in Dallas (went to OT), lost twice in New Orleans, barely won at tanking Memphis and lost in San Antonio. Our model has the Clippers only by three as Indiana is apparently playing everyone not already shut down (like former Clipper Ivica Zubac). This might have to be a backdoor cover like Wednesday was, but that money spends the same.

Minnesota's Donte DiVincenzo is likely going to play heavy minutes tonight with not just Anthony Edwards still out but his primary No. 2 in Ayo Dosunmu also sitting. There aren't many guards left on the roster, and 38-year-old Mike Conley can't be playing a ton. Forward Jaden McDaniels, and his 14.8 PPG, is also out, so that's even more potential shot attempts out there. DiVincenzo might top this in points alone, fuhgeddaboutit! Pretty sure I used that wrong ...

Second of a back-to-back for the Hornets, but part of the reason I think they were upset last night was looking ahead to this. Boston will be sans Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. That overcomes my back-to-back hesitation. And how much of a load can Jayson Tatum carry this early? He has been playing a lot of minutes. This is also Boston's only visit to Charlotte this season, so it will be a definite home-court advantage-type crowd in a possible first-round East playoff preview.

Second of a back-to-back and a random, worthless one-game road trip for the Mavericks so I don't get why they would put up much of a fight. PJ Washington leads a handful of guys sitting out. The Mavs are only favored because the Bucks are tanking, too, and obviously still without Giannis. Welcome to the modern-day NBA.

The Bucks are sitting just about everyone tonight in the second of a B2B, which should mean a lot of minutes for Jericho Sims as he's the only true center available if not a very good one. The 27-year-old has had a few nice games of late when he has gotten minutes, including 17 PR last night in 29 minutes.

On paper, a horrific spot for the Knicks on a three-game skid, in the second of a back-to-back and at the end of a trip. Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson get the night off. New York is 2-4 without Brunson this season. The Grizzlies obviously aren't winning but if they try even a little should be able to cover two touchdowns at home.

How much is Victor Wembanyama worth? Apparently almost 7 points as the Spurs were as high as -4.5, but he will sit in LA. Now, I have learned not just fade teams because their star is out. It's almost as if the opponent is flat not playing him. But the Clips are playing for seeding, healthy and on normal rest. The Spurs have a mega-showdown Saturday in Denver: Wemby vs. Nikola as a lead-in to the Final Four. So I tend to think this might be not a punt game but ... mail it in at the half if down double-digits type one.

To be clear the Kings don't want to win but have in their past two at home against bad teams. New Orleans has nothing to play for, either, is in the second of a back-to-back and has lost six in a row, the past four by double digits. I could see Zion Williamson and others take a seat tonight in a meaningless game. It's probably the last chance Sacramento has for a home win this season. Just lose by 5 is all I ask. The model has the Kings winning outright. Wouldn't shock me.

Have to play a half-unit on this, one of the biggest tank-fests of the entire season. It's like a car crash you can't not look at driving past. I think both franchises seriously would prefer to forfeit for lottery ping-pong reasons. If the NBA doesn't fix this in the offseason, it is losing me as a decades-long dedicated fan (Bulls have largely already lost me). Washington has a single win since Feb. 20. The Nets don't have many more but are at home (probably plenty of good seats available) and at least have a bunch of rookies trying for the most part.

I went to look at LeBron's point total for tonight with no Austin Reaves or Luka Doncic and it's 25.5. Model has 26.0, so I don't have a big thought there. James is averaging 6.9 assists per game, and I'm just not sure who he will pass to against the Mavs with those two bucket-getters out so this seems high to me -- and we get plus-money on the Under. On the flip side, I'd think LeBron has one of his highest shot total attempts of the campaign. JJ Redick can't play the 41-year-old 45 minutes or the like as that risks LeBron getting getting hurt, too.

The Pistons have essentially nothing to play for as a team the rest of the way having clinched the East's top seed. A handful of guys are doubtful. The Magic sit ninth in the East but only a game out of sixth and apparently will get guard Anthony Black back from injury for the first time in a month, although Franz Wagner is sitting out the second of a B2B. Yeah, I don't love playing a team on the B2B but I doubt the Pistons care that much tonight. Half-unit.

The Hawks had been playing great but were slowed last time out by the Knicks. Do the Cavs have a ton to play for? Guess not, but it's the first time they have had all their key guys together in a long while. So I think hold serve in what really is the home finale because no one will play in the real one vs. Washington.

Houston is healthy, has won seven straight and now the No. 4 seed in the West is there for the taking because of all the Lakers' injury issues. So I don't see any lack of motivation tonight -- plus a payback spot for an earlier loss in Philly. The Sixers have lost two in a row and it's the front of a back-to-back for them. I'd be just fine if they rested Joel Embiid as he murdered the Rockets in that first meeting.

I am not kidding. I am playing a half-unit on this. The Heat are stuck in 10th in the East. Why play a single soul? Mathematically, this matters nothing to the Wizards. Locked into one of the NBA's three-worst records. So why not just try? 4-point plays, juggle, Globetrotters, etc. I am gonna do some fun long-shot bets on the last weekend of the season because stuff just don't matter at least here.

Look, I am not going to get on my high horse again and rip the NBA for the tanking but this game ... I have to play a little something the lineups are just so hilarious. I'll start your child's tuition fund right now if you can name the starting 10 tonight without looking. I can't. Bez Mbeng? Rayan Rupert? Double dap if you know where they played college basketball cuz I sure don't. (dang it had to look). Home team play. All it is.

Dyson Daniels had a true breakout season last year that saw the 3rd year guard lead the Association in steals, by a massive margin, en route to winning the Most Improved Player hardware. Daniels hasn’t been able to replicate the same offensive success and has seen his scoring dip. This is a large combo line for Daniels who has eclipsed this in four consecutive games, however he has been held under this line in 61% of his appearances this season. The Hawks are also healthy and deploying a deep rotation. There is also some additional blowout risk with Atlanta checking in as nearly double digit favorites at home.

It looked like Austin Reaves was shot out of a cannon to begin the season and he thrived in a high usage role, while playing like a potential MVP candidate over the first 10 games of the year. Fast forward to mid March and Reaves production has tailed off a great deal playing in a loaded Lakers offense featuring two of the highest usage players in the league in Luka and Lebron. Reaves is still capable of posting gaudy stat lines, however he is the third option whenever sharing the court with Luka and LeBron and possesses some drastic splits.

RJ Barrett is in the midst of arguably his best stretch of the season, however this is an extremely large combo line, especially considering Barrett averages approximately under 27 combined PRA on the season. Barrett isn’t getting much in the way of peripheral stats (rebs and assists) and I don’t think he’s likely to sustain his current shooting splits, or shot volume. I expect Barrett to come back down to earth, sooner than later.

We’re getting a discount on this combination line for Deni Avdija who is set to take on the Utah Jazz. This is a plus matchup considering the Jazz play at the 2nd fastest Pace in the league coupled with ranking dead last in Total Defense. Avdija previously missed six games with a lower back injury but has returned to the lineup and looks to be playing without any limitations. This looks like a potential ceiling game.

It’s been nothing short of impressive watching the development of Jalen Johnson who has flourished into one of the best wings in the NBA. Johnson’s playmaking and court vision have been particularly impressive and he’s second in the NBA with 12 triple doubles this season. With that being said, this is as massive combination line against an above average defense in a game that could be paced down. Johnson has also struggled against the Magic both throughout his career and this season. I’d play this combination line down to 40.5.

Jalen Suggs has been playing good basketball and the Magic are markedly better with him on the court. That being said, this is a large combination line that I would argue is slightly inflated coupled with a brutal matchup against the leagues best defense. The Magic are also 9.5 home underdogs which presents significant blowout risk as well. Suggs has been held under this line in 59% of his starts this season.

This is a very large combo line for Ayo Dosunmu who is expected to see an uptick in usage and playing time with Anthony Edwards on the shelf for the Timberwolves. I ultimately believe this line is an overreaction and that this line is a lot closer to Dosunmu’s ceiling than his floor, even in a plus matchup.

This is a pretty significant discount on Scottie Barnes combination line in what should be a paced up environment against a Bulls team that has been extremely generous to opposing wings. Barnes has been in a relative slump by his standards, however I was encouraged by his previous performance and this presents a nice buy low for him.

Despite seeing his production drop off some , De’Aaron Fox is still having a very good season for a Spurs team with championship aspirations. Fox has sacrificed a lot to play on a winning team and despite this, still remains one of the best crunch time scorers in the league. He also hasn’t been playing heavy minutes as the Spurs have looked to manage his playing time as they gear up for a postseason run. Considering San Antonio have had a few days off and are playing a game that projects to be competitive, I think this is a good spot to back the All-Star.

We’re getting another discount on Scottie Barnes combo line and I think it’s worth taking once again considering this game projects to be competitive. Barnes is playing well and his decline in production can largely be attributed to blowouts, happenstance, and a variety of factors that don’t worry me. Barnes is due for some positive statistical regression and I would play this line up to 28.5.

This is a large combination line for RJ Barrett who I believe has been performing above expectations. I would also rate this a difficult matchup as the Suns play at a sluggish play coupled with an above average defense.

This looks like a good spot to back De’Aaron Fox in a game with a 240 point total that projects to be competitive. Fox has been playing well recently and is looking more and more comfortable in his role as the teams closer and primary scorer in crunch time. I also like that both Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell are Questionable which could lead to a bump in usage if both players sit.

Karl Anthony Towns is enjoying his best stretch of the season during the month of March and despite logging only 30 mins per game has averaged 22/13/3, while the Knicks are enjoying a 5 game winning streak. While KAT is playing well, I would suggest he is playing above expectations and he is a regression candidate based on his playing time and usage. He is also playing a Pelicans team that to begin the season were dreadful defensively, in addition to playing at a fast pace, which hasn’t been the case recently and are averaging fewer than 100 possessions over their last three games. They’ve also been tough on opposing Centers, however that seems more of a byproduct of their sluggish pace.

Evan Mobley should see all the usage he can handle tonight in what certainly qualifies as a plus matchup against the Miami Heat. Cleveland will be without Jarrett Allen, leaving Mobley as their only true big man on the roster and is going to benefit from sliding over to Center. Mobleys per games averages get a big boost without Allen both this season and throughout Mobley’s career on the Cavs. This is also a great matchup against a Miami that leads the NBA in pace of play.

Previous to his last two games, John Collins had gone 20+ games scoring in double figures. This likes a good spot to back the veteran in a game projected to be high scoring with a total just shy of 240 points. I have the big man projected to score 14.7 points.

Evan Mobley has been playing arguably the best basketball of his career in the month of March averaging 21/10/3 on impressive efficiency. He will face a Lakers team that gives up a ton of production to opposing scoring forwards. Mobley has been extremely active on the glass and is averaging 12 RPG over his last 9 appearances. With Jarrett Allen on the shelf, Mobley should get all the run he can handle and looks poised for a high volume role in a game that projects to be competitive.

Anthony Edwards is questionable to suit up tonight against the Pistons. If he does return to the court, I believe there is a strong likelihood he is on a minutes limit as he appeared to be on a hard cap in his previous appearance. This would also qualify as a difficult matchup versus a very good Pistons defense.

Jalen Duren has had an All-NBA caliber season and has emerged as one of the leagues best Centers. That being said, he's still a bit raw from a shot making standpoint. He'll face a difficult matchup against a Minnesota team that defends the paint well, which is where Duren does the majority of his scoring.

Brandin Podziemski has been playing well of late and prior to the Warriors last blowout loss to the Spurs had scored 20+ points in five consecutive games. The Warriors are shorthanded tonight and there are some blowout concerns here, however I expect that to be offset by a bump in usage for Podziemski.

I'm going to take a shot here on De'Aaron Fox who were getting a hefty discount on his scoring line. Fox has been held under this line in five consecutive games, however they were all blowouts where he failed to log 30+ minutes in a single game. He'll face a Clippers team that has plenty to play for in a game that projects to be competitive. I like Fox's chances of getting back on track tonight.

De’Aaron Fox is an elite scorer and despite averaging the fewest PPG he’s scored since his sophomore season, he sacrifices a ton in order to play on an elite team. We’re getting a discount on this points line, in a game that projects to be competitive and high scoring. When Fox sees 30+ minutes he’s hit this line in over 68% of his appearances this season.

Jalen Duren has developed into an All-NBA caliber Center and has been vital in the Piston locking up the top seed in the Eastern Conference. With that said, this is a hefty combo line for the talented big man in what would certainly qualify has a difficult matchup against the Magic who surrender the second fewest PPG to opposing Centers. I expect this game to be paced down as well.

This is a large number for Bam Adebayo who has struggled from an efficiency standpoint since his record setting 83 point performance against a G-League Wizards team. I also consider it a difficult matchup against an above average defensive team, who play at a slower pace, and defender opposing Centers well.

Cooper Flagg is having an incredible rookie season and all but locked up the award after his previous two performances where he combined for 96 points on strong efficiency. With that being said, this is a massive scoring line for almost any player and at this number he is an automatic fade for me. Especially when you factor in the matchup is tough, there is blowout risk, and he’s likely to cool off. I’d play this for a full unit at 27.5 as well.

Dillon Brooks has struggled since returning to the Suns lineup and considering the emergence of Jalen Green, I’m not sure there’s enough consistent volume for Brooks to support scoring lines this high. Couple that with a difficult matchup against a very good Houston defense in a game that’s expected to be paced down. This seems like a natural spot to fade Brooks and would require a bump in volume to eclipse this scoring line. I’d play this down to 16.5 as well.

I often talk about fading the hot hand when a guy is performing above expectations, thus pointing towards regression. I believe that to be the case with Jrue here as we’re getting a sizable number on this scoring line. This would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup as well, against a Spurs squad that is excellent limiting opposing guards in the scoring department.

This is a big combo line for RJ Barrett who is averaging a combined 26.3 PRA on the season. While this is definitely a good matchup on paper against a Heat team that hasn’t been particularly good defensively, it is a must win game for both teams and should be a playoff atmosphere. The Raptors are also as healthy as they have been all season long. Ultimately this number is a couple ticks too high for a guy that doesn’t create a lot of offense.

This looks like a good spot to fade rookie Kon Knueppel who is having a fantastic season, however his production has fallen off recently. Knueppel is averaging 16.7 PPG since March 1st and while he’s still playing well his efficiency has taken a hit as well. He gets a very tough matchup against a Detroit Pistons squad that is very good defensively. I also expect this game to be paced down.

The Lakers beat the Bulls 129-118 in Chicago on January 6th, covering the -1.5 spread. The Lakers have 40 wins on the season and 35 covers, but most of them are against lousy teams. They can't get over the hump against the good team. They made a nice effort in challenging that statement by beating the Knicks a couple of days ago. They've won and covered three straight, and after a loss to Denver, they won and covered another three straight. So that's six out of seven games they've won and covered, and the Bulls fit the profile of a team that the Lakers win and cover against. Lakers to cover.

The Lakers and Nuggets have split their two games played in Denver, and they play their third and last meeting of the regular season tonight in Los Angeles, with the Nuggets favored by 3. The game figures to be a crucial tiebreaker as both teams have 41 wins on the season, along with the Rockets and Timberwolves. The Nuggets should have Aaron Gordon back tonight, making them almost completely healthy. The Nuggets have won and covered two straight with a blowout over the Rockets and a come-from-behind win at San Antonio. The Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season, winning and covering seven of their last eight games. It should be a close game, but I'm taking the Lakers plus the points.

We've got two of the top four under teams in the NBA playing tonight, with the Suns playing at Boston. The Suns come off a loss at Toronto when they were leading with 8:12 to go, and they have gone over the total in their last three games, all on the road. It ended a four-game win streak. The two teams have gone under in their last two meetings, and the Celtics have gone under in seven of their last eight games. They are also the No. 1 under team in the NBA, hitting at 65.7%. The Suns are the No. 4 under team, hitting 58.2% of the time. The under.

The Lakers have won eight of their last nine games, including their last five, but all five were at home. Seven of their last nine have been at home. The Rockets have lost four of their last eight games, losing three of them on the road. The only time they met this season was Christmas Day, and the Rockets won 119-96. But we know so much more about the Lakers now than we did then. They're finding a way to play winning basketball together. Alperen Sengun missed his last game, and the Rockets haven't covered six of their last eight. I think the Lakers will be up for the road test tonight. Lakers to win.

The Hawks last played the Mavericks on March 10th, winning 124-112 as a 10-point home favorite, which made it seven straight wins for the Hawks at the time. That streak is still alive, and it's up to 10 games straight after they beat the Magic 124-112 as 3.5-point favorites two nights ago in Atlanta. They've covered nine of their last 10 games. This team is now 37-31 on the season, sitting as the 8th seed, one win behind the 5th seed. They are having a blast, and it shows on the stat sheet. Jalen Johnson gets himself another triple-double tonight, and the Hawks cover at Dallas.

Hornets beat the Magic by 15 or more in the last two games they met this season. The Magic last played two nights ago, losing to Oklahoma City. The night before that, they lost to the Hawks, but they had won seven games prior. The Hornets last played two nights ago, throttling Miami 136-106, ending a streak of five games where they didn't cover. The Hornets are 35-34, sitting as the 10th seed, 3.5 games back from the Magic, who are the 6th seed at 38-30. This will be the Hornets second game of a seven-game home stand, and I like the relaxed home-cooking to set a positive tone for this squad. Hornets to cover.

The Hawks had their 11-game winning streak broken last night in a 117-95 loss at Houston. The Warriors play the fifth game of a six-game road trip after losing in Detroit last night, 115-101. The Warriors have lost seven of their last eight games. They have a whole roster on the injured list, including Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry, Al Horford, and about 10 more guys. What's going on with Steve Kerr? All his players are hurt? He can't seem to win without Steph Curry. Golden State has gone 6-14 since Steph Curry was injured on January 30th. The Warriors have the 10th seed in the West, while the Hawks are a half-game from taking over the sixth seed in the East. Hawks to cover.

The Mavericks and Blazers split this season, but the last game was on December 29th. Things are different now, and the Blazers have a game plan, and they're showing off. The Mavericks have lost their last five games, while the Blazers have won five of their last six, and in their last two games, they put an identical beatdown on the Bucks and the Nets, allowing 99 points each. I think Dallas is going to get one tonight. The Blazers have had one night of rest and are having a blast at 37-37, sitting as the ninth seed in the playoff forecast with eight games to go. Blazers are in playoff form right now and win by 15 or more.

No Giannis of course, but no Bobby Portis or Kyle Kuzma either for the Bucks. Someone needs to make up for the missing 26.8 ppg for the latter two, and Turner, who averages 11.9 ppg, is a prime candidate. He's played one game without both those teammates and scored 15, and in four games he's suited up without Portis, he's scored 15-plus in three of them. The Mavericks rank 28th in scoring by opposing centers.

The Pelicans allow 24.1 ppg to opposing shooting guards; only the Jazz allow more. That's a good matchup for an already hot Camara, who averages 13.1 on the season but has poured in 17 and 23 the last two games, and has 16-plus in six of his last nine. He's been the scoring beneficiary of Jerami Grant's absence, and Grant is out again Thursday.

Allen is getting back into the swing of things after a lengthy injury (10 missed games). He's played in two of three, received only 18 minutes in each, but has been highly productive (18 pts, 10 reb in one, 18 pts, 4 reb in the other). Regardless of whether he gets a minutes boost here, Allen is in a spot to dominate the glass vs. the decimated Warriors. We don't know if Kristaps Porzingis will play, in in the last four games matched up with Kristaps, Allen has rebound totals of 10, 12, 10 and 18. If it's Draymond Green, Allen has 9, 5, 12 and 9 in his last four vs. him.

Wiggins got his minutes back to the usual 30-plus level the last three games following injury, and has produced 21+ P/R twice. He averages 20.6 P/R but faces the Wizards here, who rank dead-last in the NBA in both points allowed and rebounds allowed to the opposing PF spot. Bam Adebayo embarrassed the Wizards in historic fashion last time – Wiggins didn’t play then, but did have have 11 points and 10 boards in limited action vs. the Wiz in a previous meeting. With no Norman Powell and his 22 ppg, Andrew is a prime candidate to add scoring.

Seven starters are sitting out Easter Sunday - another stellar matchup for NBA fans everywhere! Donovan Mitchell and James Harden will play, so the Cavs are rightfully favored, but it's the first game of a back-to-back, and with nobody chasing Cleveland for the 4 spot in the East, it's OK to wonder how much they'll play, too. This is a lot of points for a glorified exhibition. Only a half-unit, though.

The Pistons center is averaging 21.8 ppg since the start of February, so this line is right there. But the Magic rank only behind the Thunder in ppg allowed to centers, and only behind the Clippers in ppg allowed to PFs. He's scored 16 in the last two meetings vs. the Magic. With Tobias Harris likely out for DET, the Magic can focus even more interior defensive efforts on Duren.

The Nuggets’ SF has scored 17, 17 and 19 points in three April games, and at least 12 points in 12 of his last 14. That shouldn’t change against a horrid Grizzlies team that doesn’t care any more and has surrendered 24.5 ppg to SF’s all season. Cam’s scored 18, 5 and 20 in three games vs. the Grizz. Reserve forwards Peyton Watson (14.5) and Spencer Jones (5.5) out means more minutes and points opportunity for Johnson.

As the regular season plays out, it’s only fun to play matchups in which both teams actually care. There aren’t many of them, but this qualifies. Houston has won seven straight, and is on a 4-2 ATS run. The Rockets are tied with the Lakers for the No. 4 spot but lose the tiebreaker, so this game is of utmost importance. Philly could get itself out of the play-in but it’s a stretch, and Joel Embiid, while not on the injury report, could be restricted.

Stephon Castle has gone over 4.5 boards in seven of the last 10 games, with one of the misses due to an early injury. In those seven instances, Castle had at least seven boards, with three of the totals hitting by halftime. Castle had five rebounds in the November matchup with Chicago, and that was when the Bulls allowed less than the league average to shooting guards. Over the past seven games, the Bulls have allowed shooting guards to hit this prop in over 50% of the games, compared to a 39% season rate. The guards who have gone over the total are those who are in the top-30 in rebounds by guards, which is where Castle is, averaging 5.1 RPG.

Evan Mobley has scored 17+ points in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 22 PPG over this stretch. He's also gone over this prop line in 13 of the last 15 games overall and in 69.2% of games in which he plays 28+ minutes. He's played 28+ minutes in 12 of the last 13 games. Mobley faces a Lakers defense that is allowing a league-high 11.9 FG per game and 68.3 FG pct (3rd-worst) inside 5 feet this season, where Mobley shines. He's taken 73.1 pct of his shots from less than 5 feet this season. Mobley did not play vs. the Lakers earlier this year, but scored 20 and 25 in the two meetings last year.

Nuggets' PG Jamal Murray is averaging 7.6 assists over his last five games and 7.3 assists over the last 10 games. He's gone over his prop in three of his last five games, including 14 vs. this same Jazz team last Friday. As for the Jazz, their defense has been horrific against guards lately, allowing 14 to James Harden, 14 to Murray, 8 to Devin Booker, 14 to Jamal Shead, and 11 to DeMar DeRozan just in the past 10 games. They are dead last in defensive rating, assists allowed per game, and points allowed.

We are going right back to Stephon Castle, but this time, on the assists. The Spurs guard has gone over 7.5 assists in 9 of his past 11 games, averaging 9.1 per game. This coincided with an uptick in his minutes and usage, which are now 30 min per game and 24.8% usage rate. He's now cleared his assist prop total in 57.8 pct of his games, and faces a 76ers team that ranks 18th in assists allowed to shooting guards over the last seven games.

It's been tough all year to figure out if it's Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen on the rebounding front for the Cavs. Two nights ago, vs. this same Hawks team, it was Mobley with 22 points and 19 boards, while Allen had 8 boards. Well, tonight, Allen is out. So is Donovan Mitchell. Someone has to get the board. And it wasn't just Wednesday night. Mobley has averaged 31.8 P/R vs. the Hawks in the last five matchups, going 5-0 to this prop. He's also gone 26+ in 8 of the last 10 games overall. It's a great matchup for him, and with Allen out, it's his ballgame.

Time for the hot Lakers to cool off. L.A. plays its third road game in four nights, and its terrific trio all are listed as questionable. LeBron James wants to play in his former home but banged his elbow Wednesday. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves also have pushed through ailments to improve the Lakers' playoff status, so they might sit, too. For Miami, Bam Abedayo has been dealing with a sore calf but is listed as probable. While L.A. might not withhold all of its heavy scorers, with the team plane not landing until nearly dawn Thursday from Houston, a plausible scenario is one or two taking a pass, which would open the door for a Miami W.

Luka Doncic, out. Austin Reaves, out. Marcus Smart, maybe out. Los Angeles will miss 57 ppg from their stars, while the iffy Smart produces nearly 10 ppg. LeBron James, as effective as he is in spurts, cannot carry stripped-down squads anymore. Dallas does not win often but can be competitive. Cooper Flagg is coming off a 51-point outburst, which will give the Lakers' defense another concern on top of their challenges on offense.

This feels like a prime letdown spot for a Lakers club that is in the second of a six-game road swing. They toppled the short-handed Rockets 100-92 on Monday night, but the return of big man Alperen Sengun should give Houston a needed boost as it aims to close the gap for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

The Knicks are fully healthy but the Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown tonight, in Jason Tatum’s return to MSG since his achilles injury. The Celtics are 5-2 to the under in their last seven games and have allowed 102 points or fewer in all but two of those contests. New York has gone under the total in five of its last six, allowing 111 points or fewer in all but two, as well. Both teams rank in top five in defensive efficiency and three of their last four meetings have gone under the total.