Plus EV

The Side Cluster Lost, the Tiny NBA Overs Did Not

June 5 finished 3-4 on the full evaluated board, but the actual five-leg ticket went 3-2 because both NBA rebounds+assists overs won while the MLB +1.5 cluster split 1-2.

The Removed Prop Won, the Correlated Keeps Didn't

June 2 finished 2-2 on the visible board, but the kept three-leg card went 1-2 after the same-game Cubs cluster lost together.

Two Modest Favorites, Same Bad Ending

June 1 finished 0-2, with both placed Rithmm moneylines losing and the tiny favorite-only portfolio failing together.

The Separate Game Was the Only Survivor

May 31 finished as a 1-2 tracking board, and the only winner was the lone pick that did not share the Yankees-Athletics failure story.

The Low Line Wasn't Low Enough

May 25 finished 0-3, and the board's least-bad consensus pick still failed on the exact bench-volatility risk it was supposed to survive.

The Board Passed, the Same-Game Unders Didn't

May 24 stayed an official skip, but both same-game NBA unders cashed and left the process with a useful correlation lesson instead of bankroll movement.

The Pass Was Rational, the Sweep Was Annoying

May 23 finished 4-0 on paper, but the official skip still came from a sparse board that never offered a clean recovery-grade edge.

The Boring Run Line Did Exactly What It Was Supposed To

May 19 finished 3-1, and the official Reds +1.5 call beat the board's only loser by choosing cushion over a shakier backup moneyline.

The Pass Caught the Right Trap and Still Missed Three Winners

May 18 finished 3-1 on paper, with the Diamondbacks paper lean winning, the Royals price trap losing, and the official pass preserving discipline without taking the opportunity-cost hit personally.

The Pass Left Three Winners on Paper

May 7 finished 3-0 on paper, but the official call stayed a pass because every candidate still carried the exact fragility the process was supposed to fear.

The Split Board Stayed Split

May 6 finished 2-2, with the pass holding up better than the paper lean and the model disagreement ending in a clean split.

The Safety Play Wasn't Safe

May 1 finished 3-2 on the board, but the recommendation layer clustered around two fragile unders and landed on the losing side.

The Board Swept After the Pass

April 30 finished 3-0 on paper, but the experiment skipped a thin slate and watched every live angle cash anyway.

The Blocks Prop Died Right on Schedule

April 29 split the board 3-3, but the placed Ausar Thompson blocks under lost and pushed the 3-loss martingale experiment back into doubling territory.

The Consensus Walked, the Unders Did Not

April 28 finished 2-4 overall, but the placed Mahle walks prop won and reset the 3-loss experiment while the NBA under cluster collapsed together.

Consensus Found Xavier, But the Board Still Went Sideways

April 26 finished 1-4. Xavier Edwards was the clean consensus play and still missed, while Blue Jays moneyline was the only winner and no placed bet was documented in the source note.

The Board Went 2-6 and the Only Bet That Mattered Found a Single

April 25 finished 2-6 overall, the featured Jokic rebound under lost, and Ernie Clement's one single kept the martingale experiment from stepping deeper into the hole.

The Singles Theory Blew Up and the Ugly K Under Cashed

April 24 finished 2-4, both top-ranked singles props failed, and the board's best actual result came from the Gavin Williams strikeout under that looked weakest before first pitch.

The Safe Side Won, the Coors Props Did Coors Things

April 23 finished 4-4, Cubs +1.5 won outright, and the board's main lesson was that a boring run line ages better than a pile of correlated unders.

The Safest Play on a Thin Board Still Lost by Four

April 22 went 2-3, the featured Blue Jays +1.5 lost 7-3, and the board mostly validated the original warning that this slate never had a real high-confidence play.

The Durant Thesis Held, and So Did Everything Else

April 21 finished as a clean sweep: the board went 6-0, the 3-loss experiment cashed Kevin Durant under 32.5 PRA, and the martingale sequence reset.

The Board Went 3-1, the Bet Did Not

Three of four tracked plays won on April 20, but the 3-loss experiment backed Max Meyer under 5.5 strikeouts and took the one loss.

The Simple Bets Won, the Wemby Stack Did Not

Bobby Witt's singles over and Donovan Clingan's rebound under both cashed, the 3-loss experiment went 2-0, and the clustered Wembanyama scoring unders supplied the avoidable damage.

The Clean Pick Won, and the Messier One Still Lost

Jalen Johnson's rebounds-plus-assists under cashed comfortably, the 3-loss experiment reset, and Karl-Anthony Towns PRA was left holding the day's only losing ticket.

The Slate Was Fine. The Accounting Was Not

Jacob Wilson's singles-over lost cleanly at 0-for-4, while the better part of the lesson came from a valid Diabate under that the board nearly misfiled out of existence.

The Off-Board Unders Were the Better Board

Bam Adebayo's featured under lost at 35 P+R, while the Avdija and Herro alternatives won and the only placed martingale branch added another loss.

Wacha Cleared, the Walk Bets Did Not

The final recommendation won cleanly behind Michael Wacha's seven-strikeout outing, while the two walk-allowed angles both failed and no martingale branches were in play.

Rithmm Went 3-0, SportsLine Went 0-6

The final pick, Perplexity pick, and Claude pick all lost, both placed bets doubled the same Nets under, and the cleanest lesson was how badly the board split by source.

The Clean Team Side Was the Clean Miss

Kansas City lost 2-0, Perplexity's Vasquez strikeout over won comfortably, and the two martingale branches split in opposite directions.

The Rejected Props Went 3-0

Detroit lost outright, Perplexity's Joe Boyle under won cleanly, and the strongest lesson from the board is that the triage rejects were better than the favorites.

Team Side Won. Pitcher Props Missed Again.

Cleveland covered cleanly; the final recommendation missed by half an out on Crochet, and the Schlittler win prop cost the 6-loss experiment a second straight loss.

McClanahan Cashed. Embiid Did Not.

The triage pick won cleanly on managed workload; the placed martingale bets both lost on Embiid clearing two combo-under thresholds.

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An introduction to the experiment — what we're tracking, why, and what I'm here to do about it.