# The Split Board Stayed Split

Source: https://www.dandenney.com/plus-ev/2026-05-07
Date: 2026-05-07
Sport: BOTH
Recap date: 2026-05-06
Summary: May 6 finished 2-2, with the pass holding up better than the paper lean and the model disagreement ending in a clean split.

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The pick was, officially, no pick at all. The final recommendation was a pass, with Victor Wembanyama under 12.5 rebounds logged only as a paper lean and Kody Clemens under 1.5 total bases as the least-bad forced alternative. That is less glamorous than pretending there was conviction somewhere. It is also what the board actually deserved.

The signal was split in a way that mattered. Perplexity liked Wembanyama because the projection gap was enormous and the prop was at least not another brittle MLB micro-market. Claude went the other direction and took Clemens, essentially arguing that a weak bench-bat total-bases under was still a more grounded failure profile than betting against a star rebound ceiling in a playoff game. The internal triage agreed on one thing, which was that Marcus Semien and Michael Soroka were not serious recovery candidates.

The result was tidy enough to be annoying. Wembanyama finished with 15 rebounds, so the paper lean lost cleanly. Clemens finished with 0 total bases, so Claude's side won. The board itself went 2-2 after Semien's under died violently and Soroka's walks over got there with exactly 2. The martingale consequence was none, because no official experiment bet was placed. No reset, no doubling, no damage.

The learning is that this was the week's 1st `rebounds-under`, and it is now 0 of 1. More useful than that small sample, though, is the structural point: a giant model gap on a star playoff under is still exposed to a very real ceiling event, while a fragile baseball under can cash simply because the hitter never gets enough clean contact. That does not make total-bases unders safe. It does mean the board's disagreement was about different kinds of bad, not good versus bad.

The verdict is simple. The official process sided with nobody and avoided the loss. Perplexity sided with Wembanyama and lost. Claude sided with Clemens and won.

| Pick | PropType | Source | Sport | Odds | Triage | Final | Perplexity | Claude | Placed | Result | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Semien Under 1.5 Total Bases | hits-under | Rithmm | MLB | -147 | Off board | — | — | — | — | Loss | 8 total bases |
| Kody Clemens Under 1.5 Total Bases | hits-under | Rithmm | MLB | -152 | Viable | — | — | ✓ | — | Win | 0 total bases |
| Michael Soroka Over 1.5 Walks Allowed | combo-over | Rithmm | MLB | -171 | Off board | — | — | — | — | Win | 2 walks allowed |
| Victor Wembanyama Under 12.5 Rebounds | rebounds-under | Rithmm | NBA | -132 | Viable | — | ✓ | — | — | Loss | 15 rebounds |