Harness Analysis
T1strongest
T2lean
T3weak
—reject / n/a
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Carter Under 1.5 Blocks | — | T2 | T2 | T1 | T1 | Loss |
| Cade Cunningham Under 45.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts | — | T2 | — | T2 | T1 | Win |
| Steven Kwan Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | — | T3 | — | — | Loss |
| Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | T3 | T3 | — | T3 | Win |
| Will Smith Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | — | T3 | — | T2 | Win |
Final Decision
PASS
Harnesses split 2-2 on action vs. skip; no Tier 1 consensus; Carter (closest pick) event-volatile; MLB TB unders have model projections at or above the line.
✓ Correct
User override to Kwan U1.5 TB at -132 lost on two singles. PASS was right; board went 3-2 but recommendation layer found both losers.
Candidates
Wendell Carter
vs Pistons · 6:00 PM
Under 1.5 Blocks -139
- Rithmm
- 66.7%
- BE
- 58.2%
- DTM
- 20.5%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
0.72 blocks
Cade Cunningham
@ Magic · 6:00 PM
Under 45.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts -125
- Rithmm
- 65.8%
- BE
- 55.6%
- DTM
- 23%
- Recent
- L10 8/10
42.2 PRA
Steven Kwan
@ Athletics · 8:40 PM
Under 1.5 Total Bases -144
- Rithmm
- 60.9%
- BE
- 59%
- DTM
- 4.5%
- Recent
- L10 8/10
1.6 total bases
Wilyer Abreu
vs Astros · 6:10 PM
Under 1.5 Total Bases -139
- Rithmm
- 60.3%
- BE
- 58.2%
- DTM
- 5%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
1.5 total bases
Will Smith
@ Cardinals · 7:15 PM
Under 1.5 Total Bases -142
- Rithmm
- 60.6%
- BE
- 58.7%
- DTM
- 4.6%
- Recent
- L10 7/10
1.5 total bases
Harness Notes
Hermes
PASS
✓ Correct
Auditor PASS was correct; user override to Kwan at -132 lost on two singles.
ChatGPT
SKIP
74% skip confidence
✓ Correct
No candidate cleared the loss-avoidance bar; Carter closest but blocks too event-volatile.
Claude
SKIP
85% skip confidence
✓ Correct
No Tier 1; Carter volatile, Cunningham hard-rejected for Game 6 star-usage context.
Gemini
Carter U1.5 Blocks
74% win probability
✗ Loss
Rated Carter Tier 1 on low-frequency logic; Carter hit 2 blocks in Detroit's win.
Perplexity
Cunningham U45.5 PRA
63% practical win probability
✓ Correct
Conditional pick on PRA smoothing; Cade finished at exactly 45 PRA, squeaking the under.