Harness Analysis
T1strongest
T2lean
T3weak
—reject / n/a
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks | — | T2 | T2 | T2 | T3 | Win |
| Jayson Tatum Under 29.5 Pts + Asts | — | T2 | T3 | T3 | T2 | Void |
| Kyle Bradish Over 2.5 Walks | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Max Meyer Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks | — | T3 | T1 | T1 | T1 | Loss |
Final Decision
PASS
Two losses in; cap-risk leg. Best candidate only 60–64% vs 61.5% break-even. Not enough cushion for a recovery spot.
✓ Correct
Meyer struck out 7 in 7 IP. Forced bet would have been the 3rd loss. Sequence preserved.
Candidates
Spencer Arrighetti
HOU @ BOS · 3:10 PM
Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks -144
- Rithmm
- 61.6%
- BE
- 59%
- DTM
- 6.4%
- Recent
- L3 1/3
4.9 Ks
Jayson Tatum
BOS vs PHI · 6:30 PM
Under 29.5 Pts + Asts -112
- Rithmm
- 62.2%
- BE
- 52.8%
- DTM
- 19.7%
- Recent
- L10 4/10
24.2 P+A
Kyle Bradish
BAL @ NYY · 12:35 PM
Over 2.5 Walks -154
- Rithmm
- 62.4%
- BE
- 60.6%
- DTM
- 4.6%
- Recent
- L6 5/6
3.2 walks
Max Meyer
MIA vs PHI · 3:10 PM
Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks -160
- Rithmm
- 64%
- BE
- 61.5%
- DTM
- 6.3%
- Recent
- L6 4/6
4.7 Ks
Harness Notes
Hermes
PASS
✓ Correct
Orchestrated PASS; cap-risk leg correctly avoided
ChatGPT
SKIP
72% skip confidence
✓ Correct
Thin edges and fragile prop types correctly penalized
Claude
Meyer U5.5
63% win probability
✗ Loss
Overpromoted best-of-weak-board into Tier 1
Gemini
Meyer U5.5
66% Meyer estimate
✓ Correct
Correctly caveated: SKIP at loss level 1–2
Perplexity
Meyer U5.5
62% practical band
✗ Loss
Too willing to call 60–63% band recovery-eligible