Harness Analysis
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Loss |
| LeBron James Under 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists | — | T2 | T1 | T2 | T1 | Loss |
| Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | T3 | T2 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | T3 | T2 | T3 | T3 | Win |
Final Decision
Only one plausible candidate (LeBron Under 35.5 PRA) had conditional harness support, but a risk-adjusted confidence of ~57–63% with Luka-out usage risk was insufficient for a Level 1 Martingale recovery spot.
LeBron landed at 37 PRA, losing by 1.5. PASS preserved the Martingale sequence. Board went 2-2: Marsh lost with 3 TB, LeBron lost at 37 PRA, while Hoerner and Tucker each finished with 1 TB.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 61.6%
- BE
- 59.7%
- DTM
- 4.7%
- Recent
- L10 5/10
- Rithmm
- 61.5%
- BE
- 53.3%
- DTM
- 17.7%
- Recent
- L10 3/10
- Rithmm
- 60.7%
- BE
- 59%
- DTM
- 4.1%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
- Rithmm
- 61.9%
- BE
- 60.2%
- DTM
- 4.5%
- Recent
- L10 5/10
Harness Notes
Official PASS recommendation was correct. The forced-action fallback LeBron U35.5 PRA lost by 1.5 PRA (37 actual). Martingale sequence preserved.
Correctly identified Luka-out usage burden and LeBron's poor L10 as disqualifiers. Forced pick LeBron would have lost by 1.5 PRA.
Picked the best non-fragile structure but underweighted the usage/tail risk. LeBron landed at 37 PRA, losing by 1.5.
Best discipline read. Correctly rejected both the fragile MLB cluster and LeBron's 3/10 recent form. No action taken.
Correctly identified the only non-fragile candidate, but the 57–60% practical confidence was not enough for a survival-first Martingale leg. LeBron lost by 1.5 PRA.