Harness Analysis
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | — | T3 | T2 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Tyler Mahle Under 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | — | T3 | T3 | T2 | T2 | Loss |
| Victor Wembanyama Under 4.5 Blocks + Steals | — | T2 | T1 | T2 | T1 | Loss |
| Detroit Tigers Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T1 | T3 | T1 | T2 | Win |
Final Decision
The harnesses split 2-2 between the structurally cleaner Tigers run line and the higher-model-edge Wembanyama defensive-stat under. Hermes gave the paper-control tiebreak to Tigers because the team-side +1.5 cushion avoided the worst micro-prop failure mode, but the heavy juice, split board, unknown Martingale level, and lack of recovery-grade consensus kept the official action at PASS.
Official PASS caused no confirmed bankroll exposure and the paper/control Tigers lean won. The full board finished 2-2: Freeland U4.5 Ks won, Mahle U4.5 Ks lost, Wembanyama U4.5 stocks lost by reaching exactly 5 stocks, and Tigers +1.5 won by covering a 3-2 loss. No placed ticket, stake, book, or user override was logged.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 60%
- BE
- 58.7%
- DTM
- 3.2%
- Recent
- L8 5/8
- Rithmm
- 64.1%
- BE
- 62.4%
- DTM
- 4.5%
- Recent
- L9 2/9
- Rithmm
- 73.4%
- BE
- 59.2%
- DTM
- 34.9%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
- Rithmm
- 67.8%
- BE
- 62.5%
- DTM
- 14.1%
- Recent
- L10 4/10
Harness Notes
Hermes kept the official action as PASS / PAPER WATCH because the board split 2-2, the Martingale level was unknown, and the slate was not recovery-grade. That protected the bankroll; the forced Level 0 paper lean, Tigers +1.5, also won when Detroit lost 3-2 but covered the run line.
Correct top pick. ChatGPT prioritized the team-side run-line cushion over the pitcher-K and defensive-stat unders; Tigers +1.5 covered in a one-run loss.
False signal. Claude selected Wembanyama's U4.5 blocks+steals as the best available model-edge play, but the exact spike-risk archetype hit when Wembanyama recorded 1 steal and 4 blocks for 5 stocks.
Correct top pick. Gemini treated Tigers +1.5 as the only non-micro-prop option and the safest survival structure; the one-run cushion survived Detroit's 3-2 loss.
Perplexity correctly withheld recovery approval but still made Wembanyama U4.5 stocks the Level 0 best pick. The pick lost on the fragile defensive-stat tail event at exactly 5 stocks.