Harness Analysis
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T2 | T1 | T1 | T1 | Win |
| Minnesota Twins Over 0 Moneyline | — | T2 | T2 | T2 | T2 | Loss |
| Will Warren Under 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Braxton Garrett Under 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Win |
Final Decision
Reds +1.5 had unanimous harness support as the best survival-first candidate: highest Rithmm win chance, strongest DTM, broad T1/T2 tiering, and the only meaningful structural cushion on the board. Twins ML was a reasonable cheaper backup but lacked run-line protection, while both pitcher-K unders were consensus recovery avoids because of thin edges and single-player fragility.
Reds beat the Phillies 4-1, so the conditional pick won outright and the board finished 3-1. Twins ML was the lone loser; both rejected K unders won but remain process-correct recovery avoids. No placed ticket was logged, so this is a winning official recommendation / paper-tracked conditional pick rather than confirmed bankroll impact.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 67.1%
- BE
- 62.5%
- DTM
- 12%
- Recent
- L10 5/10
- Rithmm
- 62.3%
- BE
- 57.6%
- DTM
- 11.1%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
- Rithmm
- 62.9%
- BE
- 61.8%
- DTM
- 2.7%
- Recent
- L9 2/9
- Rithmm
- 60.9%
- BE
- 59.7%
- DTM
- 3.1%
- Recent
- L1 1/1
Harness Notes
Hermes made Reds +1.5 the conditional Experiment Bet / Level 0 starter candidate and it won outright, 4-1. No actual ticket, stake, book, or user override was logged, so bankroll impact remains unconfirmed.
Correct top candidate. ChatGPT picked Reds +1.5 as the least fragile structure and correctly kept recovery eligibility conservative because of the -167 price.
Correct top candidate. Claude gave Reds the only Tier 1 grade, with Level 1 recovery possible only after checking the -167 stake math.
Correct top candidate. Gemini emphasized the one-run cushion and highest Rithmm win chance, while warning that the road-team no-bottom-9 setup and heavy price were the main failure modes.
Correct top candidate. Perplexity treated Reds +1.5 as the safest structural leg, with Twins ML only a bankroll-relief backup if the -167 sequence exposure broke the cap.