Harness Analysis
avoid worst| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Semien Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | T3 | T2 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Diamondbacks Over 0 Moneyline | — | T2 | T3 | T2 | T1 | Win |
| Royals Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T2 | Loss |
| Victor Wembanyama Under 3.5 Blocks | — | T3 | T2 | T1 | T3 | Win |
Final Decision
The board had no recovery-grade consensus and the Level 0 suggestions split between Diamondbacks, Semien, and Wembanyama. Diamondbacks were the best structural survivor across the harness split, but with current series level unknown and multiple fragile-prop traps on the board, Hermes kept the official action as PASS and tracked Diamondbacks only as a paper / Level 0-if-forced lean.
Official PASS caused no Martingale damage and no logged stake changed hands. The paper lean Diamondbacks won 12-2, and the full visible board went 3-1: Semien, Diamondbacks, and Wembanyama won while Royals +1.5 lost. Treat this as opportunity-cost PASS plus evidence to keep Level 0 paper-watch signals separate from recovery-grade rules.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 61.2%
- BE
- 59.2%
- DTM
- 5%
- Recent
- L10 8/10
- Rithmm
- 62.6%
- BE
- 57.8%
- DTM
- 11.4%
- Recent
- L10 5/10
- Rithmm
- 68%
- BE
- 63%
- DTM
- 13.6%
- Recent
- L10 2/10
- Rithmm
- 72.5%
- BE
- 59.3%
- DTM
- 32%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
Harness Notes
Official Hermes action was PASS with no logged Experiment Bet or user override, so Martingale state was unchanged. The paper lean Diamondbacks ML won, but it remained paper-only / Level 0 if forced.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Semien finished with 1 total base, so the under cashed. ChatGPT correctly identified Diamondbacks as the paper survivor, but its A removal was a false negative.
Riskiest-removal call was correct: Royals +1.5 lost when Boston won 3-1. Claude's least-shaky / conditional Level 0 pick A also won, but the C removal captured the board's only miss.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Semien's under won. Gemini's conditional Level 0 exception candidate D also won, making the high-DTM blocks-under paper-watch read directionally right for this slate.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Wembanyama finished with 3 blocks, so the under cashed. Perplexity correctly picked Diamondbacks ML as the lowest-risk structural survivor, and that paper side won.