Harness Analysis
avoid worst| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Allen Under 1.5 Blocks | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Athletics Over 0 Moneyline | — | T2 | T2 | T3 | T2 | Loss |
| Washington Nationals Over 0 Moneyline | — | T1 | T1 | T2 | T1 | Loss |
| Houston Astros Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T2 | T3 | T2 | T2 | Loss |
| Adrian Houser Over 1.5 Walks Allowed | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Win |
Final Decision
Risk-elimination mode mapped the slate as C least-shaky, A/E fragile-prop removals, and B/D middle team-market controls. Recovery was a unanimous/near-unanimous PASS, while Level 0 support split 3/4 BET C versus 1/4 PAPER ONLY. No official Hermes recovery bet was logged; C was only a conditional starter-lane candidate if Dan chose to test the recalibrated Level 0 lane.
Official PASS/no logged recovery bet avoided recorded Experiment Bet damage. Full board went 2-3: A and E won; B, C, and D lost. The strongest least-shaky / Level 0 signal C lost 7-3, while the A/E fragile-prop elimination cluster went 2-0, so this day should be tracked as a false removal/Level 0 consensus warning rather than permission to chase fragile prop wins.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 67%
- BE
- 59%
- DTM
- 19.1%
- Recent
- L10 3/10
- Rithmm
- 62.9%
- BE
- 60%
- DTM
- 7.4%
- Recent
- L10 5/10
- Rithmm
- 63.2%
- BE
- 49.8%
- DTM
- 26.7%
- Recent
- L10 7/10
- Rithmm
- 67%
- BE
- 62.5%
- DTM
- 12%
- Recent
- L10 4/10
- Rithmm
- 65.1%
- BE
- 63.4%
- DTM
- 4.6%
- Recent
- L8 5/8
Harness Notes
Official Hermes action remains PASS or no logged recovery bet. Board went 2-3 and the Level 0 / paper candidate C lost, but no placed Experiment Bet is logged; any private C exposure is unknown and should be tracked separately.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Allen finished with 1 block, so the blocks under cashed. The structural spike-risk concern remains plausible, but it did not materialize on this board.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Houser walked 5 over 6.0 IP, so the expensive pitcher-walks over won comfortably despite the thin-edge/leash concerns.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Houser cleared the walks line by a wide margin with 5 BB. Gemini correctly stayed PASS for recovery and was the lone PAPER ONLY / SKIP vote on Level 0 C.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Houser's over won with 5 walks. Least-shaky C also lost, so the broad board-map signal was useful for PASS discipline but not for identifying the day winner.