Harness Analysis
avoid worst| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T2 | T1 | T1 | T1 | Win |
| Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Jacob deGrom Under 7.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | — | T2 | T2 | T2 | T3 | Win |
| Davis Martin Under 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T2 | Loss |
Final Decision
Harnesses split 2/4 between B (Simpson U1.5 TB: one_event_kill, contact_hitter_tb_under, thin 2.1pp edge) and D (Martin U5.5 K: expensive_juice, pitcher_k_under_volatility, recent_form_collapse 2/8) as riskiest removal. No official recovery bet placed. Nationals +1.5 is the only defensible Level 0 candidate if choosing to test the recalibrated starter lane; otherwise paper-track.
No official bet placed — paper-track only. Board went 3-1: A won (Nationals 13-3), B won (Simpson 1 TB), C won (deGrom 4 K), D lost (Martin 7 K). The B/D elimination cluster went 1-1; D failed exactly through pitcher-K-under volatility. Opportunity-cost signal: A would have won by 10 runs if a Level 0 starter had been placed.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 68.3%
- BE
- 63.1%
- DTM
- 14.2%
- Recent
- L10 7/10
- Rithmm
- 61.4%
- BE
- 59.3%
- DTM
- 5%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
- Rithmm
- 61.9%
- BE
- 59.7%
- DTM
- 5.5%
- Recent
- L8 5/8
- Rithmm
- 64.6%
- BE
- 62.1%
- DTM
- 6.5%
- Recent
- L8 2/8
Harness Notes
Orchestrator correctly mapped the board: unanimous least-shaky A won (Nationals 13-3), and the B/D elimination cluster went 1-1 — D lost exactly through pitcher-K-under volatility. No official recovery bet placed; paper-track recommendation was validated.
Correct removal call: Martin threw 7 K in 6.0 IP, busting the 5.5 under exactly through the predicted path — a slightly better-than-expected outing with no unusual events. Stayed conservative on Level 0 action (paper-only lean on A).
Best combined read: correctly identified Martin as riskiest (7 K, under failed) and A as playable at base stake only. pitcher_k_under_volatility + recent_form_collapse tags validated.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Simpson went 1-for-4, 1 TB — the under cashed easily. Structurally defensible (contact_hitter_tb_under risk is real) but D was the one that actually failed tonight.
Riskiest-removal call result-wrong: Simpson stayed at 1 TB (under won). Correct least-shaky read on A, but the riskiest-removal pick survived while D was the board's only casualty.