Harness Analysis
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Allen Under 1.5 Blocks | — | T3 | T2 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Detroit Tigers Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T2 | T1 | T2 | T2 | Win |
| Atlanta Braves Over 0 Moneyline | — | T2 | T2 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| Jack Leiter Over 1.5 Walks Allowed | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Win |
Final Decision
Max-two-elimination review eliminated C1 (blocks under fragility) and C3 (thin moneyline, ~0.6pp cushion). Remaining board: C2 Tigers +1.5 and C4 Leiter walks. C2 is the paper lean but not an official Experiment Bet — Martingale level was unknown and no candidate cleared recovery-grade.
PASS protected the official track. Full board swept 4-0: Allen 1 block (WIN), Tigers 3-2 over Blue Jays (WIN), Braves 3-2 over Red Sox (WIN), Leiter 3 walks in 7.0 IP (WIN). High-confidence opportunity-cost PASS.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 64.2%
- BE
- 53.3%
- DTM
- 23.6%
- Recent
- L10 2/10
- Rithmm
- 67.2%
- BE
- 61.7%
- DTM
- 14.4%
- Recent
- L10 4/10
- Rithmm
- 61.1%
- BE
- 60.5%
- DTM
- 1.5%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
- Rithmm
- 62.3%
- BE
- 60.5%
- DTM
- 4.5%
- Recent
- L8 4/8
Harness Notes
Max-two-elimination review eliminated C1 (Allen blocks) and C3 (Braves ML). Paper lean C2 Tigers +1.5 won. Full board swept 4-0; official track took no Martingale risk.
Official SKIP avoided Martingale risk; paper lean C2 Tigers +1.5 won 3-2. Conservative stance was process-correct on an unknown-level series.
Tigers beat Blue Jays 3-2; +1.5 covered easily. Conditional T1 read was the most accurate harness call on the board.
Official SKIP stayed disciplined; paper lean C2 won. Full visible board swept 4-0 — highest-confidence board in recent sample.
Strict PASS was process-correct. Paper lean C2 won despite confidence being downgraded to ~55% from Rithmm's 67.2% due to L10 and juice concerns.