T1strongest T2lean T3weak reject / n/a
Candidate HermesChatGPTClaudeGeminiPerplexity Board
Chicago White Sox
Over 1.5 Run Line
T1T2T2T2 Win
Landen Roupp
Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks
T3T3T3T3 Loss
Ranger Suarez
Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks
T2T1T1T1 Loss
PASS (paper lean: Suarez U5.5 Ks -164)

Harness tiering favored C clearly after matchup verification, but price-adjusted edge was thin and the bet type was fragile. Official PASS remained correct given unknown Martingale level.

✓ Correct

PASS protected the experiment. Paper lean C Suarez lost (8 Ks vs Phillies); A White Sox +1.5 won. Board went 1-2. No official Martingale loss recorded.

Chicago White Sox
vs Royals · 6:40 PM
Win
Over 1.5 Run Line -142
Rithmm
61.6%
BE
58.7%
DTM
7.1%
Recent
L10 7/10
White Sox +0.0
Landen Roupp
@ Dodgers · 9:10 PM
Loss
Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks -140
Rithmm
60.6%
BE
58.3%
DTM
5.5%
Recent
L8 1/8
4.7 pitcher strikeouts
Ranger Suarez
vs Phillies · 5:45 PM
Loss
Under 5.5 Pitcher Ks -164
Rithmm
64.4%
BE
62.1%
DTM
6.1%
Recent
L7 5/7
4.6 pitcher strikeouts
Hermes
PASS (paper lean: Suarez U5.5)
✓ Correct

Official PASS protected the experiment. Paper lean C Suarez lost (8 Ks in 5.1 IP vs Phillies). A White Sox +1.5 won; no official Martingale loss recorded.

ChatGPT
A White Sox +1.5
62% approximate true survival confidence
✓ Correct

White Sox beat Royals 6-2; +1.5 covered easily. Structural-safety preference over fragile K-unders was validated — the only harness to pick A.

Claude
C Ranger Suarez U5.5 Ks (conditional)
62% win probability after matchup confirmation
✗ Loss

Suarez recorded 8 Ks in 5.1 IP vs Phillies. Matchup was confirmed but strikeout density exceeded the 5.5 line despite a normal-length outing.

Gemini
C Ranger Suarez U5.5 Ks
64% model confidence
✗ Loss

Suarez had 8 Ks in 5.1 IP vs Phillies. Pitch-to-contact thesis was wrong; Phillies lineup generated high strikeout density against an efficient outing.

Perplexity
C Suarez if must fire; SKIP if strict
64% chance this leg wins today
✗ Loss

Must-fire pick C Suarez lost (8 Ks in 5.1 IP). The strict-SKIP caveat was the process-correct call; losing result attributed to the must-fire recommendation.