T1strongest T2lean T3weak reject / n/a
Candidate HermesChatGPTClaudeGeminiPerplexity Board
Jarrett Allen
Under 1.5 Blocks
T2T2T2 Loss
Minnesota Twins
Over 0 Moneyline
T2T2T2 Loss
Washington Nationals
Over 1.5 Run Line
T1T1T1 Win
Houston Astros
Over 1.5 Run Line
T3T3T2 Win
Josh Jung
Under 1.5 Total Bases
T3T3T3 Loss
PAPER PICK: Nationals +1.5 -149

C3 has the best combination of harness consensus, structural cushion, non-micro-prop market, and Rithmm edge over break-even. PASS remained defensible for real stakes; paper pick only at Level 0.

✓ Correct

Nationals beat Reds 8-7; C3 Nationals +1.5 covered outright. No actual wager placed; Martingale level unchanged at Level 0. Board went 2-3: C3 Nationals +1.5 and C4 Astros +1.5 won; C1 Allen blocks under, C2 Twins ML, and C5 Jung total bases under lost.

Jarrett Allen
vs Pistons · 7:00 PM
Loss
Under 1.5 Blocks -114
Rithmm
64.8%
BE
53.3%
DTM
24.8%
Recent
L10 2/10
0.78 blocks
Minnesota Twins
vs Marlins · 6:40 PM
Loss
Over 0 Moneyline 105
Rithmm
60.8%
BE
48.8%
DTM
23.4%
Recent
L10 5/10
Marlins 3.8 - Twins 5.2
Washington Nationals
@ Reds · 5:40 PM
Win
Over 1.5 Run Line -149
Rithmm
65.1%
BE
59.8%
DTM
13.1%
Recent
L10 6/10
Nationals -0.2
Houston Astros
vs Mariners · 7:10 PM
Win
Over 1.5 Run Line -151
Rithmm
63.7%
BE
60.2%
DTM
8.9%
Recent
L10 4/10
Astros -0.3
Josh Jung
vs Diamondbacks · 7:05 PM
Loss
Under 1.5 Total Bases -146
Rithmm
61.1%
BE
59.3%
DTM
4.3%
Recent
L10 6/10
1.8 total bases
Hermes
PASS (paper lean: Twins ML)
✓ Correct

Official stance was PASS unless harnesses converged; final paper lean shifted to C3 after harness consensus. Pre-harness C2 Twins ML lean lost 9-5. No real bet placed; Martingale level unchanged.

ChatGPT
C3 Nationals +1.5
64% practical win probability
✓ Correct

C3 Nationals +1.5 covered outright; Nationals beat Reds 8-7. Tier 1 read validated; run-line cushion and close-game model projection were decisive.

Claude
C3 Nationals +1.5
64% win probability
✓ Correct

C3 Nationals +1.5 covered outright; Nationals 8, Reds 7. Best combo of win%, DTM, and line cushion paid off.

Gemini
C3 Nationals +1.5
6.5% confidence /10
✓ Correct

C3 Nationals +1.5 covered outright; Nationals 8, Reds 7. Highest floor / system-eligible designation proved correct.

Perplexity
Not pasted / N/A
✓ Correct

No Perplexity response present in Hermes Daily. Not counted as a vote; defaulted to skip.