Harness Analysis
| Candidate | Hermes | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Perplexity | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T2 | T2 | T1 | T2 | Win |
| Royals @ White Sox Under 9.5 Game Total | — | T1 | T1 | T2 | T1 | Loss |
| Milwaukee Brewers Over 0 Moneyline | — | T2 | T2 | T3 | T2 | Win |
| Baltimore Orioles Over 1.5 Run Line | — | T3 | T3 | T2 | T2 | Loss |
| Ketel Marte Under 1.5 Total Bases | — | T3 | T3 | T3 | T3 | Win |
| MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 Walks Allowed | — | T3 | T3 | T2 | T1 | Loss |
Final Decision
No candidate cleared the Martingale survival threshold; C2 Royals/White Sox Under 9.5 paper-tracked as a Level-0 streak-control trial at -120. Dan explicitly chose not to bet. MLB-only board with best candidate at ~61–65% still exposed to bullpen and full-game total variance.
No actual wager placed; Martingale ladder unchanged at Level 0. Paper lean C2 Under 9.5 lost (White Sox 6, Royals 5 — 11 total runs). Board went 3-3: C1 Nationals +1.5, C3 Brewers ML, C5 Marte Under 1.5 TB won; C2, C4 Orioles +1.5, C6 Gore Over 1.5 walks lost.
Candidates
- Rithmm
- 66.2%
- BE
- 62.3%
- DTM
- 10.5%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
- Rithmm
- 62.3%
- BE
- 54.5%
- DTM
- 17.1%
- Recent
- L10 8/10
- Rithmm
- 60%
- BE
- 56.3%
- DTM
- 8.4%
- Recent
- L10 7/10
- Rithmm
- 60.2%
- BE
- 57.6%
- DTM
- 6.2%
- Recent
- L10 5/10
- Rithmm
- 60.9%
- BE
- 59%
- DTM
- 4.6%
- Recent
- L10 6/10
- Rithmm
- 62.1%
- BE
- 59.3%
- DTM
- 6.7%
- Recent
- L8 6/8
Harness Notes
PASS protected the real bankroll. Paper lean C2 Under 9.5 lost (White Sox 6, Royals 5 — 11 total runs). No stake placed; Martingale level unchanged at 0.
Best real-bankroll process call: did not promote a 61–65% MLB under to a survival anchor. Paper lean C2 Under 9.5 lost; PASS avoided the loss.
C2 Under 9.5 lost — White Sox 6, Royals 5; 11 total runs. Consensus T1 failed; useful warning against equating all/mostly-T1 with safety on MLB totals.
C1 Nationals +1.5 won — Nationals beat Reds 10-4. Raw floor / run-line cushion read was right, though it was not independently confirmed by other harnesses.
C2 Under 9.5 lost — same false consensus as Claude. Gore over 1.5 walks also lost (Gore threw 8.0 IP, 1 BB), reinforcing the outlier-T1 pitcher-walk-prop downgrade.