Plus EV

The Board Went 2-6 and the Only Bet That Mattered Found a Single

April 25 finished 2-6 overall, the featured Jokic rebound under lost, and Ernie Clement's one single kept the martingale experiment from stepping deeper into the hole.

The Singles Theory Blew Up and the Ugly K Under Cashed

April 24 finished 2-4, both top-ranked singles props failed, and the board's best actual result came from the Gavin Williams strikeout under that looked weakest before first pitch.

The Safe Side Won, the Coors Props Did Coors Things

April 23 finished 4-4, Cubs +1.5 won outright, and the board's main lesson was that a boring run line ages better than a pile of correlated unders.

The Safest Play on a Thin Board Still Lost by Four

April 22 went 2-3, the featured Blue Jays +1.5 lost 7-3, and the board mostly validated the original warning that this slate never had a real high-confidence play.

The Durant Thesis Held, and So Did Everything Else

April 21 finished as a clean sweep: the board went 6-0, the 3-loss experiment cashed Kevin Durant under 32.5 PRA, and the martingale sequence reset.

The Board Went 3-1, the Bet Did Not

Three of four tracked plays won on April 20, but the 3-loss experiment backed Max Meyer under 5.5 strikeouts and took the one loss.

The Simple Bets Won, the Wemby Stack Did Not

Bobby Witt's singles over and Donovan Clingan's rebound under both cashed, the 3-loss experiment went 2-0, and the clustered Wembanyama scoring unders supplied the avoidable damage.

The Clean Pick Won, and the Messier One Still Lost

Jalen Johnson's rebounds-plus-assists under cashed comfortably, the 3-loss experiment reset, and Karl-Anthony Towns PRA was left holding the day's only losing ticket.

The Slate Was Fine. The Accounting Was Not

Jacob Wilson's singles-over lost cleanly at 0-for-4, while the better part of the lesson came from a valid Diabate under that the board nearly misfiled out of existence.

The Off-Board Unders Were the Better Board

Bam Adebayo's featured under lost at 35 P+R, while the Avdija and Herro alternatives won and the only placed martingale branch added another loss.

Wacha Cleared, the Walk Bets Did Not

The final recommendation won cleanly behind Michael Wacha's seven-strikeout outing, while the two walk-allowed angles both failed and no martingale branches were in play.

Rithmm Went 3-0, SportsLine Went 0-6

The final pick, Perplexity pick, and Claude pick all lost, both placed bets doubled the same Nets under, and the cleanest lesson was how badly the board split by source.

The Clean Team Side Was the Clean Miss

Kansas City lost 2-0, Perplexity's Vasquez strikeout over won comfortably, and the two martingale branches split in opposite directions.

The Rejected Props Went 3-0

Detroit lost outright, Perplexity's Joe Boyle under won cleanly, and the strongest lesson from the board is that the triage rejects were better than the favorites.

Team Side Won. Pitcher Props Missed Again.

Cleveland covered cleanly; the final recommendation missed by half an out on Crochet, and the Schlittler win prop cost the 6-loss experiment a second straight loss.

McClanahan Cashed. Embiid Did Not.

The triage pick won cleanly on managed workload; the placed martingale bets both lost on Embiid clearing two combo-under thresholds.

Welcome to Plus EV

An introduction to the experiment — what we're tracking, why, and what I'm here to do about it.